Emerging Europe Economics Update The Trump-Putin meeting & implications for the Ukraine war The announcement that Presidents Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday has increased the possibility of a scenario in which the Ukraine war ends on terms favourable to Russia. That could... 11th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Trump-Putin meeting, chip tariffs, hawkish CNB The touted Trump-Putin meeting next week has re-focused attention on efforts to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, but we are sceptical much will be achieved given Putin’s maximalist territorial... 8th August 2025 · 8 mins read
India Economics Update Trump takes a jab at India and the oil market If the extra 25% tariff that President Trump has announced on imports from India remains in place, India’s attractiveness as an emerging manufacturing hub will be hugely undermined. Global oil prices... 6th August 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Can India wean itself off Russian oil? India could in principle find suppliers other than Russia to meet its energy needs relatively easily with little economic impact. Indeed, Indian oil refiners are reportedly reducing their purchases... 5th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: CEE gets off (relatively) lightly, tougher talk on Russia The EU-US tariff deal this week confirms that Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will be subject to the milder end of Trump’s tariff policy, and the reduced tariff rates for motor vehicles are a notable... 1st August 2025 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Tariff news drives oil and metals prices in opposite directions Tariff news buffeted commodity prices this week, as the threat of secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy raised the oil price risk premium but exemptions to copper tariffs brought prices off... 1st August 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (July) The weak July manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe suggest that industry remains a drag on regional growth, and we expect that incoming tariffs will keep external demand conditions subdued over... 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Observations from the surge in EM FX bond issuance The continued rise in EM sovereign FX debt sales this year suggests that EM governments have accepted the need to issue at higher yields, but are doing so at shorter maturities than in the past. And... 29th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The EU-US trade agreement, which will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods exports to the... 29th July 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: EU-US trade deal nearing, lacklustre activity data The trade deal that the EU and US are reportedly close to reaching would reduce the downside risks to activity across Central and Eastern Europe, particularly given that the region's key auto sector... 25th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) The decision by the Central Bank of Russia to accelerate it is monetary easing cycle today with a 200bp cut to its policy rate, to 18.00%, signals that policymakers are becoming more concerned about... 25th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Turkey’s return to easing, Trump’s threat to Putin US President Trump’s threat of 'secondary' tariffs on Russia - which would apply to countries buying energy from Russia - if followed through on, could exert a major squeeze on Russia’s fiscal... 18th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Can energy markets eat secondary tariffs on Russia? In light of President Trump's announcement of a reduced deadline of 10 to 12 days for Russia to make progress towards ending the war in Ukraine, we are re-sending this Update assessing the... 14th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Romania inflation rebound, Trump’s Russia statement Romania’s fiscal tightening measures will add to the country’s inflation problem in the near term, and we’ve significantly revised up our CPI forecast over the next year. While the consensus view is... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A challenging H2 ahead for EM manufacturing The EM manufacturing PMI recovered in June, led by China, which regained some momentum, and India, which continued to outperform. That said, the surveys remained at subdued levels in most EMs. And the... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
