Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe all came in below 50 which suggests that industrial sectors across the region started the year on the back foot. We think that demand conditions in... 2nd February 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Security guarantees “with strings", dovish central banks Reports this week suggest the US has made the offer of security guarantees for Ukraine conditional on territorial concessions to Russia. The macro implications will depend on how credible those... 30th January 2026 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: a fiscal health check A dramatic late-year cut to spending helped Russia’s government meet its deficit target of 2.6% of GDP last year. This does not signal that fiscal strains are forcing President Putin to scale back the... 29th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026... 26th January 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Dec. 2025) The further sharp fall in Russian inflation, to 5.6% y/y in December, will be welcomed by the central bank but this is likely to be temporary as a result of the VAT hike that came into force this... 16th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Iran spillovers, CEE activity, Russian inflation spike The spillover effects for economies in Emerging Europe from the protests in Iran this week will largely depend on how commodity prices move. From a political standpoint, the protests are another blow... 16th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s security, Venezuela spillovers, CPI data The US and Europe appeared to move closer to an agreement on providing security guarantees to post-war Ukraine this week, but Russia is unlikely to be on board with the terms of the proposed... 9th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update 5 key questions on the “shadow fleet” The seizure of the Marinera oil tanker by the US has put the “shadow fleet” under the spotlight, with some estimates suggesting it now accounts for ~20% of global tanker capacity. While a concerted... 8th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB’s dovish shift, Russia & oil prices, Ukraine’s loan The Hungarian central bank’s dovish communications following its decision to leave policy settings unchanged this week suggest the risks have become skewed to an interest rate cut arriving earlier... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Central Bank of Russia cut its policy rate by 50bp today, to 16.00%, as was expected by most analysts, and further monetary easing is likely next year. That said, with the disinflation process... 19th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026... 17th December 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Diverging outlook as war in Ukraine drags on Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026 as external demand picks up and fiscal policy is kept loose (or loosened), while Russia’s economy will... 15th December 2025 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine support, CEE rate hikes? There has been further wrangling ahead of the EU leaders’ summit next week about providing a “reparations loan” to Ukraine. Given Ukraine’s dependence on European support, failure to reach agreement... 12th December 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP easing, China-Russia relations, Bulgaria protests The softness in the latest Polish inflation and wage data means we now think this week's 25bp interest rate cut will be followed by two more next year. Russia’s finance ministry announced it had... 5th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The increase in the manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe in November offers some encouragement that demand conditions in the region’s industrial sectors may be past the worst. We expect a pickup... 1st December 2025 · 2 mins read
