Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks on the sidelines, will Orbán go? Communications from central banks in the region suggest that the uncertainty from the Iran war will prompt them to stand pat for the time being, but strong underlying price pressures mean that... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Headaches for central banks If the conflict in the Middle East causes energy prices to rise further – and for a prolonged period – policymakers in Emerging Europe are probably going to be more inclined to raise rates than those... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Energy windfall for Russia & woe for Turkey Russia is a beneficiary from the conflict in the Middle East due to the rise in energy prices and a likely rise in export volumes. But we don’t think this materially alters the growth outlook. The net... 6th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Middle East conflict gives Russia an oil windfall Russia is a clear beneficiary from the conflict in the Middle East, with higher energy prices and, possibly, higher export volumes to Asia likely to narrow the budget deficit. But unless disruption to... 5th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The underlying factors shaping the oil price shock While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz dominates the near-term outlook for energy prices, shifting behaviour in the wider oil market – not least a greater willingness from India and China to import... 4th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Four years of war takes its toll Four years of war have made Russia’s economy look increasingly fragile. Capacity constraints are biting and vulnerabilities are growing in the banking sector. Still, the economic cost of the war... 27th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM budget deficits on diverging paths Fiscal tightening has helped to narrow budget deficits markedly in a number of EMs, notably Argentina, South Africa and Turkey. But elsewhere adjustment has been limited – particularly in Brazil. And... 25th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Four years of war: stagnation grips Russia’s economy Russia’s economy has proven remarkably resilient since the war in Ukraine began four years ago, underpinned by military-related stimulus, an ability to adapt to Western sanctions and disciplined... 23rd February 2026 · 15 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil: geopolitics is the name of the game; what to make of it? Oil prices have firmly been in the grips of a geopolitical maelstrom this week, as tensions between the US and Iran have escalated once more. The price of Brent crude has risen by around 5% on the... 20th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Recent downside inflation surprises across Central and Eastern Europe suggest there may be... 18th February 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) 13th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukrainian elections? Tisza manifesto, Romania GDP Reports this week suggest that Ukraine has started to plan for elections and a referendum on a peace agreement, but most opinion polls suggest Ukrainians won't be supportive of an agreement that cedes... 13th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Annual GDP (2025) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth to 1.0% in 2025 is consistent with a slight pickup in momentum in the economy in Q4, but the big picture is that the economy is under strain due to the war... 6th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-India energy relations, Turkey CPI, CEE rates We are sceptical that India will fully curtail its oil imports from Russia as part of the US-India trade deal announced this week, but even a partial scaling back of purchases could add to strains in... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe all came in below 50 which suggests that industrial sectors across the region started the year on the back foot. We think that demand conditions in... 2nd February 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Security guarantees “with strings", dovish central banks Reports this week suggest the US has made the offer of security guarantees for Ukraine conditional on territorial concessions to Russia. The macro implications will depend on how credible those... 30th January 2026 · 10 mins read
