Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s inflation shock, default & peace talks Russia’s default saga seems to be settled for the time being, with creditors reportedly now receiving scheduled Eurobond payments, but the fact that it came so close to default suggests that sanctions... 18th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Assessing the impact of the Ukraine war Next week we will learn more about the extent to which the Ukraine war is impacting economic activity. We have cut our GDP forecast by one percentage point for this year, but the risks to that... 18th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update First signs of Ukraine war’s impact on euro-zone firms The latest surveys show that the war in Ukraine has severely dented euro-zone investors’ and companies’ perceptions of the outlook. This is consistent with our view that the war will cause a... 15th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily China’s equity market, decoupling, and the Russia-Ukraine war Even if a repeat of their dismal performance in 2021 is unlikely, we don’t expect a big rebound in China’s equities this year. 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor War in Ukraine heightens risks in fragile EMs Financial markets in Central Europe have been hit hard by the contagion from the war in Ukraine, but spill-overs to other EMs have been limited so far. If the war were to result in a sustained period... 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack The Russia-Ukraine war and currency markets The dollar has generally strengthened since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while European currencies have generally been the hardest hit by the war. But unlike in most risk-off episodes, the currencies... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Ukraine war puts ECB plans on hold At next week’s monetary policy meeting, the Governing Council will stress that it will ensure banks have ample liquidity and that financial stability will be preserved while implementing EU sanctions... 3rd March 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ukraine war to keep fiscal stance loose for longer The EU’s decision to suspend its debt reduction rule for another year gives countries the green light to ramp up spending on defence and cushion the blow from higher energy prices. Depending on how... 3rd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A deep dive into supply-chain links with Russia While supply-chain links between the EU and Russia and Ukraine are small, shortages of seemingly obscure inputs can cause significant disruption, and add to price pressures, if alternatives cannot be... 3rd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Bonds & Equities War-induced rally in DM bonds may not be sustained While the war in Ukraine may well push down the yields of long-dated developed market government bonds further in the near term, we think that a sustained rally in bonds is unlikely unless the war... 2nd March 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China stands to lose not gain from war in Ukraine As Russia becomes increasingly isolated, it will lean more heavily on China as a trading partner. That will present some opportunities for Chinese firms to take market-share from western suppliers and... 2nd March 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The economic consequences of the war One immediate effect of the war in Ukraine will be to push Russia several places down the league table of the world’s largest economies. However, the impact on the global economy over the long run... 2nd March 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry holds up, but war in Ukraine a major risk February's manufacturing PMIs point to decent industrial growth last month and support our view that the impact from Omicron waves on EM industry will be limited. However, the surveys suggest that... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update US economy insulated from Ukraine war The war in Ukraine will prevent US inflation from falling as much as it otherwise would have in the coming months, but it will have little impact on the real economy, so we doubt it will stop the Fed. 1st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Three ways that Russia-Ukraine could impact gold We expect that the rise in the gold price so far this year will continue in the near term as safe-haven demand builds. That said, we expect that the price will fall when/if tensions cool. But the... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The war in Ukraine and the impact on EMs The war in Ukraine and the ratcheting up of sanctions on Russia will have knock-on effects on the rest of the emerging world mainly through its impact on supply chains and commodity prices. Some EMs... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
