Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Mar. 2026) The oil-price-driven improvement in Canada’s goods trade balance in March overstates the health of the export sector, with total export volumes falling despite a big rise in the volatile gold sector... 5th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Making sense of BanRep’s hold, Mexico’s export boom Colombia’s central bank (BanRep) defied expectations for another rate hike this week, opting to keep rates unchanged instead, which may raise concerns that the Board is taking President Petro’s... 1st May 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA mixed trade and fiscal data, Kenya’s strains building The impact of the Iran war is likely to lead to a (manageable) deterioration in South Africa’s trade and budget balances this year. Elsewhere, Kenya’s latest data pointed to slowing growth and rising... 1st May 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Some signs of easing manufacturing overcapacity The protection that Chinese firms are receiving from high global energy prices, alongside surging overseas chip demand, have pushed up profit margins in Chinese industry and resulted in a slight... 1st May 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus China’s rising trade surplus and its global implications China’s trade surplus has reached a record 1% of world GDP and looks set to rise further. It’s been driven, in part, by a surge in China’s exports – China has gained export market share across both... 30th April 2026 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: political turmoil adds to rebalancing challenge The vote of no confidence in Romania’s Prime Minister next week looks set to usher in renewed political instability. That will make it much harder to pass the fiscal austerity needed to tackle the... 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How has the war affected the Gulf’s external positions? The impact of the war on balance of payments positions across the Gulf varies by country. Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain are suffering severe blows due to the halt to their energy exports, and their... 30th April 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update China trip notes – AI & green tech underpin optimism We spent last week visiting clients in Taipei, Beijing and Shanghai. There were some concerns about events in the Middle East and the wider external environment. But the overall mood was relatively... 30th April 2026 · 8 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Apr. 2026) The RatingDog Services PMI came in stronger than expected, diverging from its official counterpart. The average of the two was unchanged from March, however. And given the weakness in the construction... 30th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How long can Iran hold out? The US blockade has cut Iran’s financial lifeline and strains are growing in its balance of payments. Estimates of Iran’s accessible FX reserves suggest that these cover no more than three months’ of... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: Is the energy shock supercharging the Chinese export boom? 12th May 2026, 9:00AM BST China is widely seen as a key “winner” of the Iran conflict–driven energy shock, thanks in part to its dominance in green tech manufacturing. But how big is the upside?
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Apr. 26) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy had a strong start to the year, with a surge in exports boosting GDP growth in Q1. Higher global oil prices should provide a tailwind to China’s... 29th April 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2026) Our measure of EM capital flows suggests that outflows eased over the course of this month, helped by the US-Iran ceasefire announcement. Perhaps more importantly, EM external balance sheets look... 28th April 2026 · 0 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Industry-driven recovery continues Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s growth accelerated last month, with higher oil prices doing little to dampen industrial activity. Indeed, over Q1 as a whole, China’s economy expanded at... 28th April 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Domestic impact of higher oil prices remains limited The war in Iran seems to have had limited impact on China's economy so far. The government has insulated end-users from much of the price shock - indeed, it cut retail prices this week - and the... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly USMCA, Kast’s fiscal plans, BCB to cut rates Comments from US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer this week suggest seem to have dashed Mexico’s hopes of removing tariffs on autos, exports of which have been struggling. There are also... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
