Canada Economics Focus Trudeaunomics is dead, whatever happens Recent shifts in the polls suggest new Liberal Party leader Mark Carney and Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre are both in with a decent chance of winning the forthcoming general election. The... 10th March 2025 · 18 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s tariff cuts unlikely to curb high food inflation The announcement by Brazil’s government that it will cut import tariff rates to zero for several food products underscores the government’s concerns about rising inflation and its own falling... 10th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Exporters still face hit despite tariff exemption The US tariff exemption for USMCA-compliant goods still leaves considerable uncertainty for the economy because less than 40% of exports to the US last year were formally USMCA compliant. The share... 7th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Economic Weekly: The rand's shaky outlook, Angola's latest Article IV The rand may have rallied this week on the news that South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed in 2024, but we think worse terms of trade, GNU instability and the associated risks in the public... 7th March 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Q1 fiscal tightening to reverse before long While the annual budget presented at the NPC implies an acceleration in fiscal expenditure this year, early signs are that spending has slowed in Q1, weighing on economic activity. Fiscal spending... 7th March 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Defence spending, tariffs and interest rate cuts Germany’s ability to announce a larger increase in defence spending and fund it by additional borrowing rather than spending cuts elsewhere shines yet another light on the UK’s tight fiscal position... 7th March 2025 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Tariffs, trade talks and Tesla President Trump had some stern words on India's tariff policy this week. But the Trump administration’s stance on India seems different from its approach to other countries: it seems focused on... 7th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly From tariffs to troops: what Trump means for Taiwan The focus of Trump’s tariff measures may soon extend beyond China, Mexico, and Canada, with Taiwan emerging as a likely target due to its large trade surplus with the US. While potential reciprocal... 7th March 2025 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Jan. & Feb. 2025) Export growth cooled over the first two months of 2025, with tariff front-running providing less of a boost to demand than we had anticipated. This slowdown comes before any substantial hit from... 7th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jan. 2025) The ballooning of the trade deficit to a record high of $131.4bn in January once again stemmed from a huge surge in imports as businesses rushed to fast-track orders before new country- and product... 6th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Jan 2025) The huge increase in exports in January was in line with the timely advance US data released last week and implies US importers looked to front-run tariffs ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the Oval... 6th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Who will be the next Vietnam? Vietnam has seen a surge in exports to the US in recent years and arguably emerged as the biggest winner of Trump’s first trade war with China. However, Vietnam’s huge bilateral trade surplus with the... 6th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Trump’s tariffs and the implications for Mexico The 25% tariff on all US imports from Mexico that came into force today will, if it stays in place, knock Mexico’s economy into recession in the coming quarters. A contraction in GDP this year of 1%... 4th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Trump tariffs hit China, Mexico and Canada – Macro and market implications 1741100400 Our senior economists hosted this special online briefing all about the latest tariff announcements from the White House, their macro and market implications, and what comes n
Japan Economics Update Japan entering Trump’s firing line Japanese firms will suffer some collateral damage from the 25% US tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. And if Trump presses ahead with tariffs on imports from Japan, carmakers would be most... 4th March 2025 · 4 mins read
