Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Dec 2025) The equal sized gains in export and import volumes in December confirm that net trade made a positive contribution to fourth-quarter GDP. However, looking through the volatile components that drove... 19th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update A primer on the USMCA joint review We think the popularity of the trade agreement among domestic firms, the potential for backlash from an increasingly assertive Congress, and the likelihood of intervention by the Supreme Court should... 18th February 2026 · 7 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Despite a modest acceleration last quarter, aggregate Latin America growth was... 18th February 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade to beat consensus expectations (again) World goods trade grew by about 4.5% in 2025 – its highest rate since 2011, except for the pandemic rebound in 2021. And we expect it to expand by a consensus-beating 2.5% or so this year. Alongside... 18th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Does Hungary need a US financial backstop? Marcio Rubio’s comments this week that the US might provide financial support to Hungary if needed seems to have been welcomed by local financial markets. Hungary’s public finances are not in good... 18th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Will Africa continue to shrug off surging Chinese Imports Chinese exports to Africa surged last year and we expect Africa’s trade deficit with China to persist presenting risks to domestic industrialisation ambitions. However, China has levers that it can... 17th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Up-and-down week foreshadows CUSMA renegotiation A week of political drama, much of it emanating from south of the border, provides useful insight into how we can expect the CUSMA renegotiation to unfold. 13th February 2026 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly US trade deal looking more palatable The fact sheet for the India-US trade deal was published at the start of this week, but by Wednesday it had been quietly revised. Two key changes stand out and improve the deal’s economic viability... 13th February 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Can China’s trade surplus rise further? China’s goods trade surplus can’t increase indefinitely. But there’s little sign that policy shifts – either within China or in its trading partners – will prevent the surplus from widening in the... 12th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (February 2026) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. EM GDP growth will slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the weakest rate in the past three decades... 11th February 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will Poland’s “Goldilocks” conditions last? Poland’s economy is currently exhibiting features considered characteristic of a “Goldilocks economy” – solid GDP growth, inflation close to target, as well as a current account near balance. And we... 11th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s current account deficit will continue to narrow The improvement in Egypt’s external competitiveness since the policy shift two years ago has supported a narrowing of the current account deficit and we think this has further to run, especially if... 9th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s DA leadership battle, AGOA is extended While the South African Democratic Alliance's change in leadership in April is unlikely to affect the stability of the Government of National Unity, there are key risks ahead including municipal... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA and the bursting of the precious metals bubble We think that the recent drop in precious metals prices has further to run, and the recent outperformance in South Africa’s financial markets has come to an end. But on the macro side, South Africa’s... 6th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-India energy relations, Turkey CPI, CEE rates We are sceptical that India will fully curtail its oil imports from Russia as part of the US-India trade deal announced this week, but even a partial scaling back of purchases could add to strains in... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
