Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s uneasy trade countdown With just over 50 days left until the 90-day pause on Liberation Day tariffs expire, most countries in Asia appear to be making only slow progress on agreeing trade deals with the US. While many... 16th May 2025 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BoJ will delay further tightening until October The truce reached between China and the US over the weekend is a clear positive for Japan’s economy. Even so, we suspect that weak economic activity coupled with an impending plunge in inflation will... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Tariffs: where we stand and potential flashpoints The recent climbdown has left the effective US tariff on the rest of the world at around 15% as opposed to the 27% which was threatened at the height of this year’s trade war. While this is still the... 13th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is the euro’s share of global FX reserves set to rise? Recent actions by the Trump administration have raised doubts about the dollar’s safe-haven credentials, and could contribute to a further decline in its share of global FX reserves. At the same time... 13th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Global Trade Stress Monitor To cut through the noise surrounding tariff impacts, we’ve pinpointed seven key stages in the global trade cycle – tracking in real time how each is responding to tariffs. This tool helps clients... 13th May 2025 (Updated 3rd August 2025) · 0 mins read
UK Economics Focus UK Focus: The UK’s future in Europe We’re resending our analysis of what the UK-EU reset means for the UK economy and, what it means for the UK’s future in Europe, ahead of today’s UK-EU summit in London. While the UK-EU reset will... 12th May 2025 · 25 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Is the current optimism about Europe justified? There has been an increase in optimism about the EU in recent months as it has been forced to take more responsibility for its own security, has loosened fiscal policy and has benefited from having a... 12th May 2025 · 16 mins read
Global Economics Update A truce in the US-China trade war The US and China have each suspended for 90 days all but 10% of their Liberation Day tariffs and cancelled other retaliatory tariffs. This is a substantial de-escalation. However, the US still has... 12th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Exports hold up despite tariff blow Trade with the US plunged in March, but a spike in exports elsewhere meant that overall exports were little changed. Nonetheless, we doubt that exporters will be able to rely on non-US demand to... 9th May 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: A tariff detente won’t avert an export slowdown The US-China trade talks taking place in Geneva this weekend could pave the way for a partial rollback in tariffs. But they are still likely to remain much higher than at the start of the year. And a... 9th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Is the UK-US deal a good omen for the EU? EU policymakers won’t have felt too excited about the US-UK trade deal announced yesterday. The deal is limited in scope, the details are yet to be finalised, and the EU might find it more challenging... 9th May 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Exports to US surge, dovish BSP Exports from Vietnam and Taiwan to the US have surged in recent months as US buyers have front-loaded orders ahead of the introduction of tariffs. The strength in exports is likely to continue in the... 9th May 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Missile strikes and trade deals Rising tensions in Kashmir are not a major threat to India's economy, but if China were to step in and provide support to Pakistan, it would surely put a major dent in the improvement in Sino-Indian... 9th May 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Apr. 2025) Export growth slowed by less than most had anticipated in April, as the drop in export orders from the US is taking time to feed through to actual shipments and many exporters are also finding ways... 9th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Weakness in wage growth probably not genuine While the trade deal agreed between the UK and the US this week sets an encouraging precedent, there are no signs of progress in the talks between Japan and the US. Meanwhile, the recent slump in... 9th May 2025 · 5 mins read
