Global Economics Update World trade to continue to benefit from AI demand The latest data suggest that global trade continues to expand at a healthy pace, driven by strong growth in Asia. Although the annual rate of expansion will moderate next year as the effects of tariff... 9th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly China export ban more bark than bite The simmering tensions between Japan and China escalated further this week as China announced an export ban on “dual-use” goods that could be used for military purposes. To be sure, China will only... 9th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Oct 2025) Swings in trade of gold and pharmaceuticals were behind the plunge in the trade deficit to a two-decade low in October, though higher computer imports suggest there are genuine signs of strength... 8th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Oct 2025) Export volumes fell a little and the trade balance returned to deficit in October, but the increases in imports of investment products bode well for domestic demand and there were some tentative signs... 8th January 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Soft overseas demand, the past rises in interest rates and higher taxes mean that GDP will grow by only 1.0% in 2026. The weakening in the labour market last year should continue to bear down on wage... 8th January 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (January 2026) The latest data suggest that the global economy lost some momentum in Q4. Industrial activity appears to be softening, while global trade – which has held up well despite US tariffs – fell in October... 7th January 2026 · 1 min read
India Economics Update A shift in India’s geopolitical alignment In our update of our Global Fracturing map for 2026, we now classify India as unaligned, rather than leaning towards the US, following the cooling of the relationship with the Trump administration... 7th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: Surging trade surplus with the US carries risks Vietnam’s economy is booming on the back of strong exports, most notably to the US, as it benefits from shifts in global supply chains. However, the export surge is widening Vietnam’s trade surplus... 6th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Current account deficit no concern for Israeli shekel Israel posted a rare current account deficit in Q3, its first quarterly deficit in a decade, but we don’t think this is a concern and expect the current account to return to surplus in the coming... 6th January 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Renminbi set to appreciate further in 2026 The renminbi has made headway recently, both against the US dollar and in trade-weighted terms. With inflation set to remain much lower in China than elsewhere, further nominal appreciation looks... 2nd January 2026 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Dec 25) While China’s growth picked up in November on the back of stronger export growth, the economy looks set to have expanded by less than 3.5% this year. Exports should continue growing next year, despite... 31st December 2025 · 0 mins read
Climate Economics Update China exports more green tech to emerging markets China’s green technology exports rebounded at a strong pace in year-on-year terms as China continues to reorient shipments towards emerging markets (EMs) amid US tariffs. While there remains a risk of... 22nd December 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Lobito rail project, oil prices Angola secured additional financing from the US and other partners this week as it looks to press ahead with the Lobito rail project underlining the Trump administration’s transactional approach to... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ flags further hikes, Sino-Japan rift hits tourism With the outcome of today’s meeting no great surprise, the Bank of Japan used it to lock in expectations that further policy rate increases will follow. One potential obstacle is an imminent fall in... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Three things to watch in 2026 Our India Economic Outlook for Q1 2026 and accompanying dashboard contain all of our latest analysis and forecasts for India’s economy and financial markets. In our final Weekly of 2025, we highlight... 19th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2025) EM capital outflows continued over the past month, driven by equities while bond inflows persisted. Even if outflows continue, strong external balance sheets mean that most EMs are well placed to... 18th December 2025 · 0 mins read
