India Economics Weekly Exports to US (and imports from Russia) holding up The December goods trade data released this week continue to show resilience in exports to the US at the headline level. But that probably reflects strength in tariff-exempt sectors such as... 16th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan: US trade deal and TSMC earnings add to optimism The trade deal struck between Taiwan and the US, alongside another bumper earnings report from TSMC, strengthens our conviction that Taiwan will record another year of rapid GDP growth in 2026. 16th January 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (January 2026) EM GDP growth will slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the weakest rate in the past three decades outside times of crisis. But there are wide divergences at a country level. Much of the weakness in EM growth... 14th January 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How tariffs are (and are not) reshaping world trade This Focus answers 10 questions about the tariff state of play, how trade flows are changing, and whether the resilience of world trade will last. Beyond our conclusion that trade will continue to... 14th January 2026 · 25 mins read
Asia Economics Update Will Taiwan deploy its “chips weapon”? Taiwan last year briefly flirted with imposing restrictions on its exports of semiconductors as part of an effort to assert its foreign policy interests. But there are strong reasons for officials to... 14th January 2026 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Dec. 2025) Headline export growth rose to a three-month high, with shipments also jumping on a seasonally adjusted basis. We expect this resilience to continue through 2026, although exports will provide less of... 14th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Venezuelan oil only a small threat to Canadian output The likely increase in Venezuela’s oil output in the next few years will cause some pain for Canadian producers, but it is unlikely to have a major impact on GDP growth. 13th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Uganda elections: Museveni to win but unrest risk lingers Uganda heads into elections next week with President Yoweri Museveni widely expected to secure a ninth successive term. Under this status quo, continued investment in the hydrocarbon industry and... 12th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SSA economies and currencies to fare well in 2026 Zambia’s kwacha has made a bright start to the year, while the naira and rand have also posted early gains. And we expect most African currencies to fare well over the course of 2026. The risk of... 9th January 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Beijing to continue insulating domestic chipmakers Beijing's guidance to Chinese firms to stop placing orders for H200 chips is unlikely to reflect an outright ban. Instead, China's leadership looks to be pausing orders as it tries to regulate imports... 9th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly On EU relations with the Western Hemisphere We suspect that European governments will prioritise their relationship with the US over concerns about Greenland’s sovereignty, not least because they are more focused on Nato and Ukraine. Meanwhile... 9th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update World trade to continue to benefit from AI demand The latest data suggest that global trade continues to expand at a healthy pace, driven by strong growth in Asia. Although the annual rate of expansion will moderate next year as the effects of tariff... 9th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly China export ban more bark than bite The simmering tensions between Japan and China escalated further this week as China announced an export ban on “dual-use” goods that could be used for military purposes. To be sure, China will only... 9th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Oct 2025) Swings in trade of gold and pharmaceuticals were behind the plunge in the trade deficit to a two-decade low in October, though higher computer imports suggest there are genuine signs of strength... 8th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Oct 2025) Export volumes fell a little and the trade balance returned to deficit in October, but the increases in imports of investment products bode well for domestic demand and there were some tentative signs... 8th January 2026 · 2 mins read
