Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (November 2024) EM GDP growth ticked up in Q3 but is likely to fall short of expectations over the coming quarters as stimulus in China disappoints and still-tight monetary policy takes it toll. For most EMs, a... 27th November 2024 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How to think about US tariffs on oil imports This is an updated version of a report originally published on 27th November, 2024. US tariffs on oil imports from Canada and Mexico would probably result in lower oil output in Canada and Mexico and... 27th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 24) Our Middle East & North Africa Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as... 27th November 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Lower inflation and interest rates, as well as easing supply-side constraints, should lead to a pick-up in regional growth in the coming quarters. But multiple headwinds, including (for some) a... 27th November 2024 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the... 26th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2024) Amid the Trump Trade, capital outflows from EM financial markets have persisted over recent weeks. Looking ahead, we expect the US dollar to strengthen further, suggesting that outflows will continue... 26th November 2024 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (November 2024) The latest activity data have brought further evidence that India’s economy is going through a soft patch. But given the strength of the recent inflation data, we now expect the RBI to keep rates on... 25th November 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How to think about tariffs In this Focus, we construct a framework to explore the channels through which an import tariff works, which we use to answer key questions about the impact of Trump’s proposals for a 10% universal... 25th November 2024 · 21 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: US tariffs – How they’ll work, what they’ll do and how the world will respond 1732631400 Donald Trump’s latest threat to impose massive tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada are a reminder that this is a very real threat to the global economic outlook.
India Economics Weekly Air pollution, friendshoring, Governor Das to stay? Air quality levels in India have been among the worst on record this week and the country's reliance on coal suggests that this will remain an economic headwind for a long time to come. Otherwise... 22nd November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus What will US protectionism mean for the euro-zone? Our base case is that protectionist policies from the US next year will have only a small economic impact on Europe, but the fallout will vary between countries and there are risks of greater damage... 22nd November 2024 · 20 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Romania’s election: macro stability in the balance Romania will elect a new government over the coming weeks at a time when the economy is performing poorly, inflation is running above target, and macroeconomic stability depends on policymakers... 21st November 2024 · 22 mins read
Africa Economics Update The potential losers if AGOA is removed US President-elect Trump’s protectionist rhetoric may mean that African sovereigns are contemplating the loss of preferential trade access to the US via the AGOA scheme. We think the overall impact... 21st November 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s economy to accelerate Morocco’s weaker economic performance this year is likely to be a blip. Buoyed by low and stable inflation, looser monetary policy, and a burgeoning manufacturing sector, we expect Morocco’s economy... 21st November 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update How will other countries respond to Trump’s tariffs? The experience of the first Trump administration suggests that other countries will retaliate to the imposition of new US tariffs but in a way that is measured and minimises the risk of escalating... 20th November 2024 · 9 mins read
