Zambia’s kwacha has made a bright start to the year, while the naira and rand have also posted early gains. And we expect most African currencies to fare well over the course of 2026. The risk of disorderly devaluations, so prominent a few years ago, is limited to a handful of countries such as Angola, Kenya and Uganda. Meanwhile, recent inflation data support our view that interest rates will be cut by more than most expect and growth will be stronger. Uganda's presidential elections next week will be a test of the shilling's stability, with President Museveni likely to triumph but risks of unrest elevated.
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