Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s fiscal travails, East Africa and Ghana inflation The IMF's warning this week that Nigeria’s budget deficit is wider than officially reported comes on the back of recently-raised concerns about the use of total return swaps and will put pressure on... 3rd July 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jun. 26) The US-Iran deal has triggered a slump in energy prices providing relief to Africa’s energy importers, particularly those in East Africa. Energy exporters such as Angola and Nigeria will see their... 30th June 2026 · 0 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Growth to strengthen even as fiscal strains linger Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to accelerate over the coming years and most of our growth forecasts lie above the consensus. At the same time, the backdrop of low inflation (by the region’s... 29th June 2026 · 19 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly The end of the Iran war and what it means for Africa Many economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly those in East Africa, will be key beneficiaries from the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the drop back in global energy prices, although the... 19th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May 26) Higher energy prices will boost Angola and Nigeria’s economies. With elections on the horizon, governments are likely to spend their windfall. Most others in the region are having to manage worse... 27th May 2026 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa: from one energy crisis to the next South Africa this week marked a full year without power outages, but the effects of the energy shock from the Iran war are now starting to kick in. We think the rise in inflation in April was probably... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA mixed trade and fiscal data, Kenya’s strains building The impact of the Iran war is likely to lead to a (manageable) deterioration in South Africa’s trade and budget balances this year. Elsewhere, Kenya’s latest data pointed to slowing growth and rising... 1st May 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 26) The jump in energy prices due to the Iran war will lift revenues in Angola and Nigeria. And upcoming elections mean that most of the windfall will be spent, thereby supporting stronger growth. But... 30th April 2026 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB can resist rate hikes, Nigeria reshuffle, E. Africa fuel This week’s latest comments from SARB Governor Kganyago reaffirmed the growing risks of interest rate hikes. For now, though, a high policy rate and a strong external position are reasons we think... 24th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA hawkishness, new DA leader, Kenya macro strains The warnings from SARB Governor Kganyago about a potential policy misstep amidst rising inflation suggest that it's more hawkish than we previously though. But today’s renewed optimism on the US-Iran... 17th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya holds rates, Nigeria insecurity worsening The energy price shock prompted the Central Bank of Kenya to halt its easing cycle this week and, while policymakers sound relatively sanguine, they appear to be underestimating the risks from growing... 10th April 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA trade & budget data, SSA activity holds up Trade and budget data released this week suggest that South Africa headed into the energy price shock in decent shape. But we are concerned about the risks that a longer war could pose to the fiscal... 2nd April 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Fuel prices, SARB watching second-round effects African government’s responses to rising fuel prices are falling into two camps: those passing higher costs directly to consumers and those absorbing them. Kenya and Ethiopia are doing the latter but... 27th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly New forecasts for Africa amidst the Iran war As the conflict in the Middle East rumbles on, we’ve adjusted our key macroeconomic forecasts for Sub-Saharan Africa. There are a few countries that stand to benefit from the sharp rise in global... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: energy shock adds to currency, sovereign risks Kenya’s reliance on energy imports from Gulf States leaves it amongst the most vulnerable on the continent to the conflict in the Middle East. The fragile external position leaves the onus on the... 18th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SSA fuel prices, inflation and the policy response Sub-Saharan Africa looks better placed to face the current energy shock than the last one in 2022. But the region is still vulnerable to the conflict in the Middle East via the impact on fuel supplies... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
