Africa Economics Update Kenya: More railway problems, commercial debt worries The latest changes to Kenya’s railway plan have focused attention on the Chinese-funded SGR project. But the country’s real debt problems surround its growing eurobond sales, which will increase with... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Balance of payments risks easing Kenya’s current account deficit remains a vulnerability, but we don’t think that it poses a threat to the economy this year. In fact, we think that the deficit will narrow further in 2019 as oil... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa rates: Kenya on hold, Ghana & Angola will keep cutting With inflation set to remain within target, we expect that Kenyan policymakers will leave their key rate on hold this year. Their Angolan and Ghanaian counterparts, however, will continue their easing... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Solid momentum, low oil prices boost outlook Strong growth in Q3 and the recent fall in oil prices suggest that Kenya’s economy will perform well going into 2019. Despite lingering structural problems, we’ve raised our growth forecast for this... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya’s railway: Trouble ahead, but limited debt risk It is very unlikely that the new Nairobi-Mombasa railway will, as Kenya’s government hopes, break even next year. But fears that the troubled line will push up to Kenya’s debt repayment costs are... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rates on hold into 2019 Kenyan policymakers left their key policy rate at 9.00% today, and we think that they will maintain the current policy stance going into next year. 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Debt risk building Kenya’s plans for another US$2.5bn eurobond have added to our concerns about its burgeoning public debt. While a major debt crisis should be avoided if the country’s economy continues to grow rapidly... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya & Uganda: Inflation will remain within target Price pressures eased in Kenya and Uganda in October, and we think that inflation will remain within target in both countries. Kenyan policymakers will probably keep their key rate on hold in 2019... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: MPC shifts tone (again) Nigerian policymakers struck a hawkish tone today, but we doubt that rate hikes are on the cards. Inflationary pressures are probably not as worrying as Governor Emefiele seems to believe. Kenyan... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa in recession, Focac summit, Kenya fuel costs Figures released this week showed that South Africa’s economy performed even worse than we’d thought in Q2. Headline growth will probably recover in the second half of the year, but we’ve downgraded... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya’s central bank now likely to pause easing cycle The statement that accompanied today’s decision by the Central Bank of Kenya to lower interest rates by 50bp suggested that the easing cycle has further to run. However, with inflation set to rise in... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Fragilities easing, but not out of the woods yet Kenya’s wide current account deficit will narrow in 2019 as oil prices decline and food imports fall. But the situation will remain fragile; we think that economic growth will be softer than most... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Weak performance in key economies Figures released over the past month confirmed that Africa’s larger economies have all struggled in 2018. South Africa, where GDP actually fell in Q1, was the worst performer. Elsewhere, figures from... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update EAC Budgets: Kenyan fiscal policy raises economic risks Kenyan policymakers’ plan to narrow their budget deficit relies on very optimistic revenue forecasts. If these are missed, concerns about Kenya’s large and growing debt burden will increase. 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update E. African inflation: Still on track for rate cuts in 2018 Inflation in Kenya and Uganda will pick up over the coming months. The shift will be mostly due to base effects, and with inflation within target, policymakers in both countries will cut rates by 50bp... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Weaker inflation points to rate cut Today’s inflation figures support our view that policymakers will cut their key rate in July. Meanwhile, the rebate surrounding Kenya’s lending rate cap suggests that the controversial law will be... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read