Nigeria deficit, Ethiopia-Somalia tensions, Kenya GDP

Nigeria’s 2024 budget, signed into law this week, included encouraging signs that the government will cease deficit monetisation, providing hope that the Tinubu administration’s reform momentum hasn’t completely faded. Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s deal with a breakaway region in Somalia and its aggressive push to fill a hydroelectric dam are ratcheting up tensions with neighbours. Ethiopia’s prioritisation of self-sufficiency over currying favour with the West looks set to harm its economic prospects. Finally, the recent data showing a pick-up in growth in Kenya will raise the likelihood that the government can meet its fiscal goals and avoid default.