Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation eases. But growth will be constrained by tight fiscal and monetary policy and our GDP growth forecasts for most economies lie below the consensus. Public debt risks remain a key concern. Default now appears unavoidable in Ethiopia, while Mozambique and Kenya appear to be the countries next most at risk. Fiscal fears are also likely to build in South Africa ahead of the election.
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