South Africa’s disappointing PMI for March supports our view that the economic recovery this year will be subdued. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s reduction in household electricity subsidies will help its fragile fiscal position and suggests that the policy shift has momentum. But this will come at the expense of more near-term inflationary pain. Finally, the dovish statement accompanying the Kenyan central bank’s meeting this week (at which rates were left unchanged) backs our call that interest rate cuts will begin by Q3.
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