Economic growth in the region has been resilient in the face of the energy shock, and we think it will accelerate from here. Inflation held steady or slowed, including in Nigeria and South Africa, reinforcing our view most central banks can resist pressure to hike rates.
Economic vulnerabilities generally look low by the region’s recent standards, although currency and sovereign debt risks remain concerning in Mozambique (which is seeking to restructure its government debt) and Kenya.
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