Africa Economics Update Kenya: Debt worries building Kenya’s public debt load is not particularly large, but the recent run-up in debt is clearly not sustainable. Our core view is that the government will tighten policy and that the debt burden will... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: A look at the balance sheet Kenya’s ongoing political crisis is drawing attention to its fragile balance sheet. Our core view is that policymakers should be able to manage the situation. Even if the currency were to weaken... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Boycotted election threatens lasting crisis The results of yesterday’s re-run presidential election in Kenya are not in doubt. But signs suggest the country’s political crisis – which has already weighed on the economy and local markets – will... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Looking beyond the politics Attention this month has focused on political stories in Kenya, South Africa, and Angola. We will continue to cover these issues in other publications. While economic data released over the past month... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Risk of violent crisis escalating Kenya’s post-election legal drama is still rapidly developing. But the latest developments all suggest that the country’s chance of avoiding a violent (and economically painful) crisis is dwindling. 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African markets soften in September A combination of rising political risk and falling commodity prices caused key African markets to weaken over the past month. Only a few markets bucked the trend, and they gained very little ground. 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack A Multispeed Recovery GDP figures released this month showed that the economic fortunes of Africa’s largest economies diverged in Q2. South Africa’s economy rebounded after a brief recession at the turn of the year. While... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan MPC holds rates again, but will ease in 2018 The Kenyan MPC kept rates unchanged today, but we expect that they will loosen policy next year as inflation falls towards the middle of the target range. 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Not out of the woods yet Most commentators hailed the Kenyan Supreme Court’s decision to annul the result of last month’s presidential election as a key win for the country’s democracy. This is, as yet, premature. The real... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Politics centre stage In a quiet month for economic news across frontier markets, politics has provided a regular stream of headlines. Investors were buoyed by results from Argentina’s primary elections which showed that... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Politics grabs headlines as key economies strengthen Attention this month focused on unfolding political dramas in Africa’s key economies. The president of South Africa narrowly saw off another no-confidence vote, Kenya’s president was re-elected in a... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Disputed result raises risk to economy Claims of tampering in yesterday’s Kenyan election have increased fears of a violent dispute. A crisis may still be avoided, but the risk of a deadly (and economically damaging) dispute is increasing. 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Election poses key risk to already slowing economy The risk of violence following next week’s election is rising. A repeat of the 2007-08 crisis would cut about 3.0%-pts off GDP growth in Q3; the total cost would depend on the length of the... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier recovery still on track The recovery in frontier economies continued over the first half of this year. GDP growth averaged around 2.0% y/y in Q1, twice the rates seen in mid-2016. It would have been stronger still were it... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update A strong month for local markets Most African currencies and equity markets gained a bit of ground in July. Mozambique – where debt worries deepened – was a rare exception. 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Major economies rebound, policy easing gains pace The latest data support our view that the recoveries in Sub-Saharan Africa’s big three economies will be stronger than most expect. Activity data in Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola all suggest that... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read