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A tepid recovery

Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in most places, the drag from high inflation eases. But growth will be constrained by tight fiscal and monetary policy and our GDP growth forecasts for most economies lie below the consensus. Public debt risks remain a key concern. The risk of sovereign default is highest in Ethiopia, Mozambique and Kenya, but fiscal fears are also likely to build in South Africa ahead of the election.

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