Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi’s credit splurge a slow-burning risk

The rapid expansion of commercial bank lending in Saudi Arabia has raised the risk of an increase in non-performing loans and heightened the exposure of the banking sector to both the real estate...

20th August 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Aug. 2024)

Our UK Housing Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The recent drop in mortgage rates has caused house prices to rise a bit faster than expected...

15th August 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Chart Pack

US Housing Market Chart Pack (Jul. 2024)

A pullback in buyer demand paired with rising supply has cooled the market, causing house price inflation to ease. However, the recent sharp decline in mortgage rates will offset some of that softness...

6th August 2024 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Jun. 24)

Net lending to property increased for the third month in a row in June, and the rise of £1.31bn was the largest since the end of 2021. In line with last month the gain was entirely due to a rise in...

29th July 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Lending surveys point to weak recovery in transactions

Recent surveys of real estate lenders paint a picture of a European lending market that is still seized up, as loan terms tightened and credit demand fell in H1. Lenders are optimistic that demand for...

23rd July 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Distress rising, but still a long way to go

With the share of non-performing CMBS loans on the rise, and plenty of loans set to refinance onto a higher rate this year, recent data provide further evidence that distress will rise both this year...

18th July 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Outlook

Market still tight, but slowly moving towards balance

We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, but not by enough to fully offset the effects of mortgage rate ‘lock-in’. As a result, although we expect existing home sales to rebound, we forecast that...

16th July 2024 · 15 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Sweden REIT distress unlikely to derail recovery

The downgrading of Sweden’s SBB to selective default last week is the latest development for a property market that has faced some of the most acute debt refinancing pressure in Europe. The saga will...

11th July 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Mortgage Applications (June 2024)

The decline in mortgage rates back below 7% helped mortgage applications for home purchase to rise by 5.1% m/m in June. That gain was tiny in the context of the ongoing three-year slump in...

3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Recovery in lending unlikely to gain more momentum

The granular data on mortgage lending in Q1 contained some signs of relief following the dip in mortgage rates at the end of last year. But given that decline in rates has since reversed, we don’t...

11th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Focus

Interest rate cuts won’t reduce mortgage costs much

Just as fixed mortgage rates have shielded homeowners from rising interest rates, they will prevent households’ interest costs from falling rapidly when interest rates are cut. While borrowers on...

6th June 2024 · 14 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Mortgage Applications (May 2024)

The decline in mortgage rates in May was not enough to stop home purchase mortgage applications from falling to a three-month low. The chances of a quick turnaround in June currently look slim, as the...

5th June 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Why have the US and EZ downturns lagged the UK?

While the timing of the sharp hit to UK commercial real estate values owes much to the ill-fated “mini-Budget” of September 2022, we think the UK’s role in leading the valuation downgrades also owes...

28th May 2024 · 6 mins read

US Housing Market Chart Pack

US Housing Market Chart Pack (Apr. 2024)

Mortgage rates climbed back above 7% last month but we think that trend will soon reverse, with rates falling to 6.5% by year-end. Lower borrowing costs will draw more mortgaged buyers into the market...

14th May 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Update

Shutting out institutional buyers won’t lower house prices

Lawmakers' current efforts to restrict institutional buying of single-family homes won’t put downward pressure on house prices if enacted, as their market share is minimal.

9th May 2024 · 3 mins read