Africa Chart Pack Hope on vaccines, but still a long way to go COVID-19 vaccine coverage remains pitifully low across much of Sub-Saharan Africa, with less than 10% of populations having received at least a first dose in most countries. But there are signs that... 28th October 2021 · 11 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Headwinds beyond vaccine woes intensifying Extremely low vaccine coverage continues to cast a dark cloud over recovery prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa and this will be compounded by deteriorations in the terms of trade and tighter fiscal... 27th October 2021 · 22 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Debt restructuring talks inching forward The threat of messy outcomes to Sub-Saharan Africa’s debt problems seems to have diminished recently. In Zambia, the new administration vowed to tackle debt problems and press on with restructuring... 30th September 2021 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Update Pandemic not in the rear-view mirror for some time The economic damage from the latest COVID-19 waves across Sub-Saharan Africa appears to be smaller compared to previous waves, but low vaccination rates mean that officials will have to keep... 1st September 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Rising political risks in Ethiopia, SA GDP revision’s pros? An internal political conflict in Ethiopia is escalating with an all-out civil war no longer a remote prospect. Strains in the country’s already fragile balance sheet are growing and a messy sovereign... 27th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Economic damage report from latest virus waves The evidence from the latest COVID-19 waves sweeping through Sub-Saharan Africa point to a smaller economic blow compared to previous waves. Of course, there is a considerable degree of divergence... 27th August 2021 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Lagging behind Vaccination campaigns across Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to struggle, leaving the region vulnerable to renewed virus outbreaks. This, combined with tight fiscal policy, a slow return of tourists... 5th August 2021 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update SDR allocation a positive but won’t solve debt woes The $650bn allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) that was finally signed off by the IMF yesterday should provide welcome relief to some frontier markets such as Ghana and Kenya that still... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s fiscal tightrope, FX reshuffling in Nigeria "Post-unrest relief measures announced by the South African authorities will probably go some way to offset the blow to the economy. The government expects to be able to stick to its fiscal... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Delta threat building The highly contagious Delta variant of COVID-19 seems to be dominant now across much of Sub-Saharan Africa and is driving new waves in many of the large economies. South Africa appears to be over the... 29th July 2021 · 10 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Third wave fears grow Worries about a third wave of COVID-19 in the region have intensified in the past month and the tightening of lockdown measures in some countries – most notably South Africa – will weigh on recoveries... 24th June 2021 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Update Pressure on the Kenyan shilling to persist Kenya’s current account deficit will probably widen in the coming quarters and could reach as much as 6.5% of GDP over this year as a whole. We expect the shilling to continue to depreciate against... 25th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: The economic cost of the locust outbreak After a severe drought in 2019, Kenya is now facing the worst desert locust outbreak in 70 years. The impact on livelihoods could be devastating, but the economy-wide cost is likely to be limited. 7th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Economy weathers drought Kenya’s economy remained weak in Q2, but there are signs that the key agricultural sector has held up pretty well given this year’s drought. With the drag from the sector easing, GDP growth will pick... 3rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Despite drought, next rate move will be a cut Kenya’s drought will probably push inflation above the CBK’s target range in Q4. But bank will likely look through this spike, as it did in 2017. We think the next rate move will be a 50bp cut in Q4... 28th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: More railway problems, commercial debt worries The latest changes to Kenya’s railway plan have focused attention on the Chinese-funded SGR project. But the country’s real debt problems surround its growing eurobond sales, which will increase with... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read