Regional growth appears to have stabilised in Q1 and we think that a better external environment will provide a boost in the near term. Still, we think GDP growth will undershoot consensus expectations. Inflation is falling back more slowly than previously expected, delaying interest cuts even further.
Debt restructuring talks in Ghana and Zambia are making progress but are still taking too long and will heighten fears on what may come for other countries at risk of default, such as Angola and Mozambique.
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