Market turmoil and Africa, Uganda and Kenya rate cuts

Idiosyncratic factors seemed to play a bigger role than the recent global financial market turmoil in driving African markets this week. But while the fall in oil prices may be overdone, African producers should worry about the fall in metal prices. Elsewhere, central banks in Uganda and Kenya kicked off their monetary easing cycles amid lower inflation, and we expect South Africa to be next major African economy to cut. Finally, we think recent protests across the continent will have a limited impact, but governments will find it harder to rely on fiscal austerity to deal with public debt problems.