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Kenya default risks fall, Dangote oil refinery ramps-up

Kenya’s partial payment of its $2bn Eurobond will improve its chances of avoiding a sovereign default next year. Extra IMF funds and an improved balance of payment position will also help, but sticking with austerity will be key to placing the public finances on a more sustainable footing in the long-run. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s Dangote oil refinery is likely to come on line from late-2024. While Nigeria’s oil output has continued to rise, the start up of the refinery will likely eat into crude available for export. The economic benefits from Dangote’s refinery remain a long way out.

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