Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up in 2024 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation fades. Even so, tight fiscal and monetary policy will continue to act as a constraint, meaning our growth forecasts lie below the consensus for most. The slow pace of debt restructuring talks in Ethiopia and Zambia remains a concern and will heighten fears on what may come for other countries at risk of default, such as Mozambique. Kenya, for now, appears safe. Fiscal fears are also likely to build in South Africa ahead of and beyond May’s election.
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