The jump in energy prices due to the Iran war will lift revenues in Angola and Nigeria. And upcoming elections mean that most of the windfall will be spent, thereby supporting stronger growth. But most of Africa will face worsening terms of trade, especially energy and fertiliser import-reliant economies such as Kenya and Zambia. Inflation will be pushed higher, slowing or even halting monetary easing cycles and dampening economic growth. Mozambique, despite being a net energy exporter, appears vulnerable to a debt or currency crisis due to pre-existing fiscal and external position pressures.
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