Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy had a strong start to the year, with a surge in exports boosting GDP growth in Q1. Higher global oil prices should provide a tailwind to China’s exports over the coming months by boosting demand for green-tech and supporting the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturers. And while the oil price shock has pushed China out of factory-gate deflation for the first time since 2023, we don’t expect a sustained rebound in inflation.
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