SA hawkishness, new DA leader, Kenya macro strains

The warnings from SARB Governor Kganyago about a potential policy misstep amidst rising inflation suggest that it's more hawkish than we previously though. But today’s renewed optimism on the US-Iran conflict still suggests to us rates will remain on hold over the coming months. Meanwhile, the new DA leader’s plan to stay outside of the cabinet is one more reason to expect heightened tensions with the ANC and complicate policymaking in South Africa going forward. Finally, Kenya’s decision to finally raise fuel prices and its openness to currency weakness signal policymakers are starting to take its macroeconomic imbalances more seriously.