Nigeria’s fiscal travails, East Africa and Ghana inflation

The IMF's warning this week that Nigeria’s budget deficit is wider than officially reported comes on the back of recently-raised concerns about the use of total return swaps and will put pressure on the government to show a commitment to fiscal discipline, particularly with the election coming onto the horizon. Elsewhere, central banks in Ghana and Uganda can probably look through the rise in headline inflation in June and avoid raising interest rates. In contrast, while inflation in Kenya fell last month, the growing risk of a disorderly devaluation could force hikes there.