Latin America Economics Update Mexico: better placed to face Trump now? Mexico is once again bracing for trade protectionism in the US. And while it staved off tariffs in the first round of the trade war, on balance we don’t think it’s in as strong a negotiating position... 14th January 2025 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Dec. 2024) Export growth rebounded last month, with both export values and volumes posting double-digit y/y gains. We expect shipments to remain strong in the coming months, as US importers continue to stockpile... 13th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Panama Canal, Brazil’s shrinking trade surplus While it’s hard to know how seriously we should take President-elect Trump’s comments this week that the US should re-acquire the Panama Canal, it does add to the evidence that the incoming... 10th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi debt issuance, Egypt-IMF, Lebanon’s new president Saudi Arabia kicked off the year with bumper international debt issuance and, with foreign investment remaining weak and budget deficits likely to persist, the government’s reliance on capital markets... 9th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Event US Drop-In: Inauguration Day special – Knowns and unknowns around Trump’s second term 1737471600 As the president-elect again prepares to take office, our US team held a special briefing to walk clients through what to expect in the opening phase of the second Trump admin
Canada Economics Focus Trump, Tariffs, and the 51st State Donald Trump’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric against Canada suggests we should take his tariff threats seriously. We already assume that Trump includes Canada in a likely 10% universal import... 9th January 2025 · 19 mins read
Event Drop-In: Trump 2.0 – US and Asia macro implications 1736841600 2025 has started with a bang as bonds have sold off amid growth and inflation fears – and the operating environment may only get more tricky from here.
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Egypt at risk of a sudden stop? The improvement in Egypt’s macroeconomic stability since March’s policy shift has resulted in a surge in capital inflows on a similar scale to that which followed the 2016 devaluation. But if signs... 8th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Nov. 2024) The third consecutive rise in export volumes in November provides further evidence that the economy was gaining momentum at the end of last year. US tariffs could cause the recovery to go into reverse... 7th January 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update India: FDI slump set to reverse The further slump in net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India last year seems in large part a reflection of still-high global interest rates. One implication therefore is that the slump... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Dec. 2024) December’s batch of PMIs declined for the most part across the Gulf but we doubt that the strength of non-oil activity will be sustained in 2025, particularly in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Elsewhere... 6th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) The latest FOMC meeting suggests the Fed already has its eye on President-elect Donald Trump’s inflationary policy changes. We have therefore revised up our forecast for the terminal fed funds target... 23rd December 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies in Eastern Europe are struggling heading into 2025, and policymakers have... 20th December 2024 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Update Tariff front-running holds up China green tech exports China’s exports of the “New Three” held up in November, although this was solely due to the strength of lithium-ion battery exports to the US as firms prepare for the imposition of tariffs. Looking... 20th December 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Consensus expectations for 2025 are over-optimistic Consensus expectations for India’s economy suggest that it will grow at a similar pace in 2025 as it has in 2024. Certainly, data this week suggest that the economy is carrying good momentum into the... 20th December 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook Trump policies will be mildly stagflationary We expect the incoming Trump administration’s policies to have a mildly stagflationary impact on the economy. Assuming that Trump introduces tariffs and immigration curbs via executive action by the... 19th December 2024 · 16 mins read
