Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Softer growth, starker divides EM GDP growth will slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the weakest rate in the past three decades outside times of crisis. But there are wide divergences at a country level. Much of the weakness in EM growth... 16th December 2025 · 27 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s FX shift will still leave the peso overvalued The announcement by Argentina’s central bank that it will widen the peso’s trading bands is a step in the right direction, but it won’t be enough to bring the peso closer to its fair value. With the... 16th December 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Are India’s non-tariff barriers also being lowered? Non-tariff barriers in India have risen over the past decade, as highlighted by the widespread use of Quality Control Orders (QCOs). It is encouraging therefore that there appears to have been a... 16th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook SSA set for its strongest growth streak in over a decade The macroeconomic backdrop has turned increasingly favourable and we expect Sub-Saharan Africa to enter its strongest period of growth in the coming years since the early 2010s. Our forecasts for most... 15th December 2025 · 19 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Solid growth, easing cycles drawing to a close The economic outlook across much of Asia has improved recently, prompting modest upward revisions to our 2026 GDP growth forecasts. Strong demand for AI-related products will continue to lift exports... 15th December 2025 · 25 mins read
China Economic Outlook Growth to stay soft as deflation persists Fiscal support and a ramp-up in AI investment will prevent a sharp slowdown in China’s economy, but we expect growth to remain weak in 2026. Deflation and overcapacity will persist and China’s... 15th December 2025 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Diverging outlook as war in Ukraine drags on Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026 as external demand picks up and fiscal policy is kept loose (or loosened), while Russia’s economy will... 15th December 2025 · 25 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s fiscal risks, Mexico’s China tariffs The Colombian senate’s rejection of President Petro's tax bill adds to our concerns that the country's already-fragile public finances are likely to deteriorate further ahead of next year’s election... 12th December 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Sep) The trade deficit narrowed markedly to $52.8bn in September, from $59.3bn, as exports increased by 3.0% m/m, easily outpacing a 0.6% m/m gain in imports. It now appears that third-quarter GDP growth... 11th December 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Does Egypt need the IMF anyway? Oman gets an upgrade Egypt’s IMF review has coincided with a fresh impetus to jumpstart the lagging privatisation programme. But compared to just a couple of years ago, Egypt’s improving balance of payments position and... 11th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Hopes for strong recovery will be disappointed Economic growth will remain subdued over the next two years as the largest economies struggle and the smaller ones outperform. Past ECB interest rate cuts will do little to boost activity because... 10th December 2025 · 28 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Dec. ’25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with our key calls and forecasts to reflect the latest regional developments. The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest... 9th December 2025 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Economy to cool, but outperformance to continue After a very strong 2025, economic growth in India is likely to slow in 2026 and 2027 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if they don’t, India will remain a... 9th December 2025 · 17 mins read
China Economics Update Trump eases the hardware bottlenecks on Chinese AI China’s leadership has spurned Nvidia’s knee-capped H20 chips. But it may be willing to let its firms buy the more powerful H200 chips that President Trump is now offering. This would allow China to... 9th December 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Nov. 2025) The tariff cuts agreed under the US-China trade truce didn’t help to lift shipments to the US last month, but overall export growth rebounded nonetheless. We think China’s exports will remain... 8th December 2025 · 2 mins read
