Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trump tariff shock heightens risks The larger-than-expected tariff imposed by US President Trump on the EU means the hit to the euro-zone economy will be larger than we had anticipated. For now, a euro-zone recession is still not our... 4th April 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Trump’s tariffs not a game changer for the UK It’s clear the markets have concluded that Trump’s tariffs have increased the downside risks to activity that the Bank of England is worried about. But the uncertain influence of tariffs on CPI... 4th April 2025 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: OPEC+ surprise adds fuel to oil market fire Amidst the commodity market chaos following “Liberation Day”, the surprise OPEC+ announcement that it will raise output by more than previously planned in May worsened the sharp decline in oil prices... 4th April 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Economy can withstand tariff blow If the 26% US tariff on India is sustained it is likely to reduce economic activity but the impact won't be very big given that India is not especially reliant on US demand. And the RBI can give an... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA could cut rates further, as headwinds mount Although the direct impact of US tariffs on the Australian economy is likely to be modest, we believe second-order effects could be more damaging, due to negative spillovers from key trading partners... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Feb. 2025) The narrowing of the trade deficit in February was driven by stronger exports, mainly of non-monetary gold, while imports remained at record levels, as businesses continued to rush orders ahead of... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Feb 2025) The large fall in exports in February was to be expected given the (albeit temporary) imposition of tariffs on goods imports into the US that month. While Canada may have gotten off relatively lightly... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: MENA and the Trump trade war, Saudi balance of payments President Trump’s tariff announcements on Wednesday evening mean that much of the Middle East and North Africa is subject to a 10% tariff, although Jordan is more vulnerable given its greater... 3rd April 2025 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico spared the worst, but growth will still be weak Mexico got off lightly from the tariffs announced by President Trump yesterday and the overall hit to the economy from US trade measures may be a bit smaller than we’d initially thought. Even so, we... 3rd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update The impact of 20% US tariffs on the euro-zone If the 20% US tariff on the EU is sustained it is likely to reduce economic activity in the euro-zone by more than the 0.1-0.2% of GDP we had previously assumed. The impact on inflation should be... 3rd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Two surprises in the market reaction to “Liberation Day” Markets were roiled after Trump announced “Liberation Day” tariffs that were clearly bigger than many (including us) had expected. We think there are a couple of interesting facts in the market... 3rd April 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update US tariff rate on China now almost 70% We’d already assumed substantial US tariffs on China in our forecasts. But the latest hikes take them even higher than we had anticipated. The economic hit to China will range between 0.5-1.0% of GDP... 3rd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan’s balance sheet strains back in the spotlight Spillovers from the war in Gaza and threats of cuts to foreign assistance from the US have thrown the spotlight onto Jordan’s shaky balance of payments and public finances. For now, we think that the... 2nd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: keep an eye on FX reserves Quick action by the Turkish central bank appears to have stemmed pressure in Turkey’s financial markets after the recent sell-off. But the rapid depletion of FX reserves means that policymakers have... 2nd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe appear to have ended Q1 on a positive note... 31st March 2025 · 1 min read
