Global Economics Update World trade still holding up amid tariffs After falling in Q2, growth in global goods trade looks to have picked up somewhat in Q3 on the back of strong Asian exports. The latest survey data point to a slowdown in global goods trade. But as... 5th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update De-risking EU supply chains will be a slow process The EU has prioritised becoming more self-sufficient in the production of critical raw materials. While it is making progress, it is likely to remain heavily dependent on China and China-aligned... 5th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s worsening twin deficits reinforce need for austerity Saudi Arabia’s twin budget and current account deficits have widened on the back of low oil export receipts and this trend is likely to continue over the coming quarters. While the adjustment to low... 5th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Middle East & North Africa PMIs (Oct. 2025) October’s batch of whole economy PMIs for the region showed a pick-up, suggesting that non-oil private sectors in the Gulf have continued to fare better than expected amid the backdrop of low oil... 4th November 2025 (Updated 5th November 2025) · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (October) The October PMI readings for most countries in Asia remained consistent with weak manufacturing activity. We expect economic growth in the region to soften in the near term and, with inflation likely... 3rd November 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tariff cut isn’t the biggest trade truce win for China The halving of fentanyl tariffs won’t have much of an impact on China's economy. More consequential for China is the suspension of the Entity List Affiliates Rule, which buys thousands of firms time... 31st October 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bihar election looms large over India-US trade talks The Bihar state election will be closely watched for its implications for reforms and as a potential referendum on India’s stance in trade talks with the US. Bihar is one of India’s most agrarian... 31st October 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update China’s equities have more to gain as tensions ease We think China’s equities stand to benefit more than those in the US from any further easing in US-China tensions. That said, we still think the US stock market will outperform China’s over the next... 31st October 2025 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Oct. 25) While growth picked up in Q3, our China Activity Proxy still suggests that the economy is expanding at a much weaker pace than official figures indicate. Export growth has continued to hold up well in... 30th October 2025 · 0 mins read
China Economics Update Xi-Trump talks buy China time to decouple at its own pace The reversal of some US tariffs on China won’t have a big impact given that Chinese exporters had largely shrugged them off. But the de-escalation takes the immediate threat of large tariff hikes off... 30th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years supported... 29th October 2025 · 0 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea strikes trade deal with the US South Korea has finalised a trade deal with the US which, based on the details released so far (from the Korean side), appears relatively favourable, with auto tariffs set to be lowered and pledges of... 29th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: US–China trade talks – a lasting truce or just a pause? 30th October 2025, 9:00AM GMT Our senior economists hosted this special online briefing assessing the Xi-Trump meeting, the latest agreements and the outlook for the US-China economic relationship.
Africa Economics Update What to watch as Tanzania heads to the polls? Tanzania’s presidential election tomorrow is likely to result in a win for incumbent Samia Suluhu Hassan and ongoing investments into infrastructure and the extractives sector will support strong GDP... 28th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We expect the Middle East and North Africa to record its fastest rate of GDP... 28th October 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Trade talks termination emblematic of trade woes President Trump’s termination of trade talks won’t make a big difference to the near-term outlook, given rumours that any imminent deal would only provide modest tariff relief to the metals sectors... 24th October 2025 · 5 mins read
