US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jan. 2025) The ballooning of the trade deficit to a record high of $131.4bn in January once again stemmed from a huge surge in imports as businesses rushed to fast-track orders before new country- and product... 6th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Jan 2025) The huge increase in exports in January was in line with the timely advance US data released last week and implies US importers looked to front-run tariffs ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the Oval... 6th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Who will be the next Vietnam? Vietnam has seen a surge in exports to the US in recent years and arguably emerged as the biggest winner of Trump’s first trade war with China. However, Vietnam’s huge bilateral trade surplus with the... 6th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Trump’s tariffs and the implications for Mexico The 25% tariff on all US imports from Mexico that came into force today will, if it stays in place, knock Mexico’s economy into recession in the coming quarters. A contraction in GDP this year of 1%... 4th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Trump tariffs hit China, Mexico and Canada – Macro and market implications 1741100400 Our senior economists hosted this special online briefing all about the latest tariff announcements from the White House, their macro and market implications, and what comes n
Japan Economics Update Japan entering Trump’s firing line Japanese firms will suffer some collateral damage from the 25% US tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. And if Trump presses ahead with tariffs on imports from Japan, carmakers would be most... 4th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The risks from New Zealand’s large external deficit New Zealand’s current account deficit will remain large as domestic demand rebounds and the government is running a sizeable structural budget deficit. While the New Zealand dollar has recently been... 3rd March 2025 · 14 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Bank weighing up strong GDP versus tariff threats There were mixed signals from the White House this week over whether the 25% tariffs on imports from Canada will come into effect as scheduled on March 4th. Providing that does not happen, then the... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Feb. 25) We expect fiscal stimulus to keep China’s economy growing at pace over the first half of this year. But as fiscal support fades and US tariffs start to drag on exports, we think growth will start to... 28th February 2025 · 0 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Seven points on the UK-US trade deal The "economic" trade deal that Starmer and Trump talked about at the White House this week may mean the UK avoids any new tariffs on its exports to the US. But since we didn't think such tariffs would... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Tariff manoeuvres, RBI shifts priorities, the long-run view The formation of a committee to assess the scope of possible tariff reductions is another sign that PM Modi is seeking to make concessions to President Trump in order to avoid being hit hard by... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Rising US tariffs to test China’s exchange rate policy With US tariffs now escalating, the key question is whether the People’s Bank (PBOC) will allow the exchange rate to adjust in response. We think it ultimately will, just as it did during the first... 28th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Tunisia’s central bank, Egypt and benefits of the policy shift Tunisia’s President Saied has renewed his siege on the country’s central bank and seems set on having the state take control over its responsibilities, which adds to our concerns about the risk of a... 27th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Event Drop-In: Could a ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ fix the global trading system? 1743087600 There’s no shortage of proposals for fixing global trade imbalances – not least a ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ suggested by the new head of Donald Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers.
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Feb. 2025) On aggregate, EM capital markets have continued to experience outflows in recent weeks and it’s hard to see a significant turnaround given that President Trump’s proposed policies would likely result... 26th February 2025 · 0 mins read
