UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Trump’s tariffs tirade becomes more troubling for the UK We still believe that tariffs are unlikely to reduce UK GDP by as much as some fear and that the UK is much less exposed than a lot of other economies. But the growing possibility of the UK facing... 14th February 2025 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Another week, another tariff, Chile’s hawks Some major Latin American economies look among the most exposed to the steel and aluminium tariffs (Mexico and Brazil) and reciprocal tariffs (Argentina and Brazil) announced by US President Trump... 14th February 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: What we learnt from the Modi-Trump meeting India would appear to be one of the most exposed countries worldwide to a US reciprocal tariff. But concessions made in the meeting between PM Modi and President Trump this week raise hope that India... 14th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump talks Ukraine peace, EU gas slides; metals tariffs The possibility of the EU increasing pipeline supplies of Russian natural gas following Trump’s announcement of peace talks with Putin has contributed to a sharp fall in EU gas prices. Whether or not... 14th February 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Reciprocal tariffs underscore Trump threat for China China is among a minority of countries that apply lower tariff rates on the US than vice versa, so it is not as obviously exposed to reciprocal tariffs as many others. But President Trump’s latest... 14th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: NZ mulls tax cuts, Australia could gain from trade war Speculation has been growing that the New Zealand government will slash the corporate income tax rate in the upcoming May budget. Given that New Zealand’s corporate tax rate is higher than in most... 14th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Bonds Update Rising Treasury term premia and the stock-bond correlation Our base case is that Treasury term premia – and yields – rise only a little further. But we think disruptive US trade policy, among other things, poses a threat to that view and, relatedly, to... 14th February 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Trump's reciprocal tariffs a bigger deal than universal measure President Trump appears to have abandoned the idea of imposing a flat universal tariff of 10% or 20% on imports from all other countries. But the broad criteria that will be used to assess his new... 13th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump’s reciprocal tariffs – who’s at risk? If the Trump administration pursues a reciprocal tariff strategy rather than a 10% universal tariff, then it could result in a smaller rise in the overall effective tariff rate than we have assumed... 13th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa this year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in some... 13th February 2025 · 0 mins read
China Economics Update China adds to export controls in a bid to pressure US China added five critical minerals to its export control list last week but stopped short of banning their sale. The move was intended as a warning to the Trump administration and to increase China’s... 12th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Feb. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will accelerate in 2025 on the... 12th February 2025 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Chinese retailers to suffer under Trump’s trade policies The end of the de minimis tariff exemption for US imports of low-value goods from China will be a major blow to Chinese e-commerce giants like Temu and Shein. They’re likely to lose market share to... 11th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Economics Update: Steel and aluminum tariffs will cause little harm The newly-announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports entering the US will have a limited impact on the Canadian economy given that exports of these products account for just 1% of GDP... 10th February 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Steel, aluminum and reciprocal tariffs The Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum come at a time when domestic capacity utilisation and import intensity are low, implying they will have less of an impact on overall prices... 10th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of steel and aluminium tariffs The direct impact on the global economy of President Trump’s latest proposed tariffs would be small since steel and aluminium account for a very small share of world trade. Canada’s economy is... 10th February 2025 · 4 mins read
