India Economics Update Is Trump pushing India into China’s arms? The deterioration in Indo-US relations appears to have expedited New Delhi’s efforts to strengthen ties with Beijing, as highlighted by Prime Minister Modi’s first visit to China in seven years last... 11th September 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook Economic resilience amid US tariff hit After an exceptionally strong first half of 2025, India’s economy faces a more challenging rest of this year and 2026 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if... 10th September 2025 · 17 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Aug. 2025) Exports were broadly unchanged last month – the slowdown in headline y/y growth was just a base effect. But with the temporary boost from the US-China trade truce fading and the US raising tariffs on... 8th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly September rate cut now looks almost certain The August Labour Force Survey was weak, with employment falling by 66,500 and the unemployment rate rising to a four-year high of 7.1%. While the Bank of Canada always expected some weakness in... 5th September 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Export resilience is a symptom of domestic weakness We are re-sending this Weekly due to a technical error. Apologies for any inconvenience caused. Policymakers in China seem more concerned about the overcapacity problem than the trade war with the US... 5th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone resilient to tariffs but growth still sluggish Data released this morning confirmed that the euro-zone economy has been resilient so far in the face of US tariffs and related uncertainty. But the latest surveys point to weak growth in Q3. 5th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (July 2025) The rebound in exports in July was broad-based but, with the export order indicators still weak, we suspect it reflects more of an inevitable rebound from recent weakness rather than the start of a... 4th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jul. 2025) A resurgence in gold imports partly explains the widening of the trade deficit in July. Exports were flat, but a weaker dollar and negligible tariff retaliation abroad should support them in the... 4th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update World trade on course to soften rather than slump The slowdown in world goods trade since Q1 has been largely due to the reversal of tariff front-running. But the latest data show that world trade has so far not slumped in the wake of tariffs. And... 3rd September 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Japan will continue to shrug off global trade tensions GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace as external demand softens. However, with consumption growth still healthy and underlying inflation set to remain... 3rd September 2025 · 17 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show signs of improvement in global industry The latest PMIs suggest that global industry has been fairly resilient in the wake of US tariffs so far and may already be past the worst. Meanwhile, goods price pressures remain much stronger in the... 2nd September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update The implications of the Court of Appeals ruling on tariffs In the wake of the Court of Appeals’ decision upholding a lower court finding that Trump exceeded his executive powers by imposing sweeping universal and reciprocal tariffs, this Update answers key... 2nd September 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Profits will hold up better than the Bank of Japan expects While the Bank of Japan is worried that trade tensions will weigh on profits, business investment and wage growth, profits have in fact held up well so far and we expect that to remain the case going... 2nd September 2025 · 16 mins read
Global Economics Update Uncertainty is so far a small drag on global investment The unprecedented levels of trade uncertainty brought about by US tariffs appear to have had only a limited impact on investment so far. Uncertainty has persisted and our model indicates that there... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (July 2025) The rise in core PCE prices in July was entirely due to a rise in core services prices, and is further evidence that tariffs are having minimal impact on goods prices. Meanwhile, the rise in real... 29th August 2025 · 2 mins read
