Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (July 2024) EM recoveries have been stronger than expected this year, but growth in aggregate will slow over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Emerging Asia the outperformer... 18th July 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (June 2024) While the widening of the trade deficit in June points to a sizeable drag from net exports on Q2 GDP growth, activity should still have rebounded last quarter. 18th July 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (July 2024) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data point to some divergence in GDP growth in major economies in Q2. On the... 15th July 2024 · 0 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Food inflation, US tariffs, Colombia’s public finance risks The raft of June inflation data out this week was not as bad as the rise in the headline rates would suggest, as higher food inflation masked falls in in core inflation. Core inflation appears most... 12th July 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC narrows rate corridor, overcapacity worsens The PBOC’s expanded open market operations effectively narrow the interest rate corridor for short-term interbank rates. This won’t have any immediate consequences for monetary conditions. But it does... 12th July 2024 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Jun. 2024) Export values grew y/y at the fastest pace in 15 months, with export volumes hitting record highs. We think exports will stay robust in the near term despite increased Western tariffs. Import volumes... 12th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul. 2024) Net capital inflows into EMs remained positive over the past month, largely reflecting continued strong inflows into EM bonds, particularly Turkey, while there were outflows post-election in Mexico... 11th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi pension changes, Saudi and Egypt Q1 BoP data The increase in Saudi Arabia statutory retirement age could increase the size of the labour force by 10% by 2040 and, in turn, lift potential GDP growth by as much as 1%-pt per annum. Meanwhile, Q1’s... 11th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi non-oil activity cooling Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth is likely to pick up, and markedly so in 2025. But that will be driven by rising oil output. We think that activity in the non-oil economy will slow. Indeed, there are signs... 11th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Shipping Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) Shipping costs have now risen far enough to start adding to global CPI inflation. However, so far, the boost to prices is probably only in the region of 0.1%, on average. What’s more, surging freight... 10th July 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Turkey losing external competitiveness? Turkey’s economy has maintained strong external price competitiveness since the pandemic (mirrored by rapid export growth). But measures of competitiveness have shown a noticeable decline in the past... 9th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Latest trade data spell good news for Iberian ports Timely estimates of trade through Europe’s busiest seaports so far this year have broadly mirrored relative economic performance across Europe, as volumes through Iberia’s ports have recovered while... 4th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle, PMIs, Oman income tax Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle gave the government a facelift, but it doesn’t look like there will be any U-turns on policymaking – and particularly the fiscal consolidation path. Meanwhile, the batch of... 4th July 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) The stronger-than-expected rebound in GDP in Q1 and the improving outlook for households suggests the next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July imply will be a Labour one... 3rd July 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response International Trade (May) The trade deficit widened slightly to $75.1bn in May, from $74.5bn, as exports fell by 0.7% m/m, outpacing a 0.3% m/m decline in imports. Nevertheless, the decline in exports was more modest than the... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
