Uganda elections: Museveni to win but unrest risk lingers

12th January 2026

Uganda heads into elections next week with President Yoweri Museveni widely expected to secure a ninth successive term. Under this status quo, continued investment in the hydrocarbon industry and infrastructure should allow growth to approach 7%. But the risk of post-election unrest is high and, in that event, Uganda’s poor external position means that the shilling could face a disorderly adjustment.

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