Africa Economics Update Ghana: Fiscal, monetary policy to act as a shock absorber Higher crude oil revenues are likely to allow Ghana’s government to loosen fiscal policy which, taken together with the lagged impact of the large monetary easing cycle, should support the economy. We... 2nd June 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: what to expect from Abiy’s next term Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his Prosperity Party will almost certainly win the election taking place today but the next administration faces a host of challenges. The government still... 1st June 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB hikes, but tightening cycle to be short The South African Reserve Bank hiked its policy rate by 25bp to 7.00% today as expected and, while it acknowledged that inflation risks are firmly to the upside, the Reserve Bank still looks likely to... 28th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EM central banks might be next to hike? The EM central banks that have tightened monetary conditions in response to the energy shock (Turkey, Pakistan, Philippines) are facing balance of payments strains and very large inflation shocks... 19th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Weak naira providing little boost to industry The expansion of Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity has helped to boost the current account surplus and allowed the central bank to rebuild its foreign exchange reserves. But the sharp weakening of... 18th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Assessing the effects of an extreme war scenario In this Update, we explore an extreme scenario in which the Iran war escalates beyond the assumptions in our published baseline and adverse scenarios. With Brent crude jumping higher and staying at... 14th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Dangote refinery helping Nigeria weather supply shock The Dangote oil refinery has materially improved Nigeria’s energy security, leaving it better insulated from oil price shocks than before. Nigeria is not immune from the inflationary pressures from... 13th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Fertiliser price surge to hit low-income EMs most acutely The main impact of the rise in fertiliser prices on the global economy will come via higher food inflation. But this will take time to materialise and will be much smaller than the increase in... 23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Iran war and EMs – your questions answered This Update answers the questions on the Iran war and the impact on emerging markets that we have received most frequently from clients in meetings, through our platform and in our online briefings... 23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update The economic consequences of a tax on Hormuz trade A tax on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be unlikely to have major near-term implications for global energy markets, trade or wider economic activity. But depending on how it is structured... 9th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi Attacks? While the direct effect of renewed strikes on shipping in the Red Sea on aggregate world trade is likely to be limited, the impact on Asian economies that rely more heavily on oil imports from Saudi... 31st March 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Oil gains lift Angola and Nigeria, but Mozambique strained The surge in energy prices from the Middle East conflict will boost incomes in Angola and Nigeria and upcoming elections and persistent spending pressures mean that much of the windfall is likely to... 31st March 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB looks through energy shock, for now The South Africa Reserve Bank held it repo rate at 6.75% again today as it made clear that it will look through the initial energy price shock. For now, so long as the war ends in the coming weeks as... 26th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Refined oil products caught in the maelstrom The surge in the prices of refined oil products is amplifying the economic impact of the energy crisis. Countries in Africa that ordinarily source oil products from the Middle East have been most... 20th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: energy shock adds to currency, sovereign risks Kenya’s reliance on energy imports from Gulf States leaves it amongst the most vulnerable on the continent to the conflict in the Middle East. The fragile external position leaves the onus on the... 18th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will EM central banks respond to the energy shock? The spike in energy prices has already caused Turkey’s central bank to tighten monetary policy and Pakistan may not be far behind. Most other central banks will be more reluctant to tighten but those... 18th March 2026 · 3 mins read
