Africa Economics Update Godongwana talks up growth, but austerity is order of the day The South African Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) was presented as a “pro-growth” statement, but the numbers underscore that the government has no room to loosen the fiscal stance... 30th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique’s instability heightens default risks The outbreak of unrest in Mozambique after contested elections is unlikely to have a large impact on growth in the near term. But any attempts by the government to loosen fiscal policy to appease... 30th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What would Trump mean for EM monetary policy? A victory for Donald Trump in the US election would probably result in higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. That’s an environment in which central banks in EMs with strained balance sheets... 24th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s lopsided economic recovery South Africa’s economy continued to pick-up in the middle of Q3 but the recovery is taking place at different speeds across sectors; lower inflation is supporting consumer-facing sectors but industry... 16th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: MTBPS likely to double down on austerity South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will be in the unusual position of presenting the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) later this month against the backdrop of a sharp... 15th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Is Nigeria benefitting from a weaker naira? The Nigerian naira has fallen by more than 70% against the dollar since President Tinubu came to office, which has contributed to a surge in inflation that has weighed on economic growth. There are... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB cautiously cuts by 25bp The South African Reserve Bank finally joined the EM easing cycle today, lowering its repo rate by 25bp to 8.00%. While the MPC clearly has some lingering concerns about the inflation outlook, we... 19th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa Activity Data (Jul. '24) South Africa’s economy is enduring a clear divergence in its economic recovery. Consumer-facing sectors appear to be performing better but industry, particularly mining, continues to struggle. We... 18th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What the Fed’s easing cycle means for EMs The Fed’s upcoming monetary easing cycle will probably provide less of a tailwind to EMs than is widely thought. While it’s likely to give some central banks (such as in the Gulf, Mexico and Indonesia... 12th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update FOCAC: Africa-China relations in a fracturing world Attention at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation that started today in Beijing will be on the extent to which China can stave off competition from the US to strengthen ties with the region... 4th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: a bumpy recovery ahead The pick-up in Nigerian GDP growth seen in Q2 will probably be followed by a renewed slowdown this quarter. But we think the backdrop of rising oil production, falling inflation and possible interest... 28th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Unpacking South Africa’s structural growth problem There’s growing optimism that South Africa’s economy is set for a period of faster growth under the Government of National Unity (GNU). And we think a combination of lower interest rates and higher... 22nd August 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Slowing underlying inflation suggests SARB can cut The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) new “supercore” inflation measure adds yet another piece of evidence that price pressures are being brought under control. We think the SARB should now be... 20th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa experiencing a two speed recovery South African economy looks to have recorded a pick-up in growth in Q2, but the recovery is operating at two speeds with retail sales and manufacturing on the up, while the mining sector remains a... 14th August 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update What Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturing Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs... 13th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SSA protests will worsen public finance strains Protests that originated in Kenya have spread to neighbouring Uganda and as far afield as Nigeria. The common theme of a weak economic backdrop, endemic corruption and fiscal fears means the region is... 7th August 2024 · 4 mins read