Africa Economics Update Nigeria: refineries to help but not solve external strains Output from Nigeria’s oil refinery sector has been in terminal decline, inflating the fuel import bill at a time when the economy is already suffering from a shortage of hard currency. The new Dangote... 4th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa and the impact of upcoming pension reform In light of President Ramaphosa’s assent to the Pension Funds Amendment Bill yesterday, we are re-sending this Update from late last year that takes a closer look at the impending changes to South... 14th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Key risks for 2024 In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB stands pat, but hawkish rhetoric remains The South African Reserve Bank opted against responding to last month’s larger-than-expected rise in inflation with an interest rate hike, leaving the repo rate unchanged at 8.25% today. But officials... 23rd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: drag from loadshedding set to ease The intensification of loadshedding has brought growth in South Africa’s economy to a halt this year, but there appears (finally) to be some light at the end of the tunnel. Repairs to existing power... 20th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Assessing public debt risks in Africa In this Update, we present our sovereign debt heat map that provides a snapshot of debt risks across Sub-Saharan Africa. Government debt is still above pre-pandemic levels and most economies we cover... 10th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: Godonwanga doubles down on austerity South Africa’s finance minister reaffirmed his commitment to fiscal consolidation in today’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) but, even so, debt is now projected to peak at a much higher... 1st November 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian banks set to weather naira devaluation The large falls in Nigeria’s currency will push inflation up even further and is one reason behind our below consensus near-term GDP growth forecasts. But the good news is that the banking sector... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: public finances worsen ahead of MTBPS The continued deterioration in South Africa’s budget position in recent months leaves Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana facing an uphill challenge to reassure investors at November’s Medium Term... 12th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: inflation, debt risks to hold back rate cuts Sub-Saharan African central banks are unlikely to follow their peers in other EMs in cutting interest rates soon. With inflation falling more slowly, alongside balance of payment and public debt... 5th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Gains from Nigeria’s policy shift at risk of evaporating Nigeria’s policy shift has stalled in recent weeks as officials have responded to a growing political backlash by reverting to the interventionist tendencies of the Buhari administration. The result... 28th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB holds and maintains hawkish rhetoric The South African Reserve Bank left interest rates on hold today at 8.25% and continued to emphasise that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, suggesting that it is in no rush to begin... 21st September 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Signs of scarring in South Africa’s labour market South Africa’s unemployment rate has dropped back over the past year or so but it remains far above its pre-pandemic level. The rise in long-term unemployment, which has its roots in both cyclical and... 14th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think EMEA equities will continue to be a mixed bag Equities in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) have returned little in US$ terms so far this year. While they may fare better next year, we doubt they’ll outperform the wider emerging equity... 29th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa’s slow tourism recovery sustains external strains Sub-Saharan Africa’s tourism industry has recovered slowly from the pandemic, albeit with significant variation in performance across the continent. Signs that the tourism outlook is weakening risk... 24th August 2023 · 3 mins read
