Asia Economics Update What next for the Taiwan dollar? The Taiwan dollar has appreciated sharply against the US dollar in recent months but, for a host of reasons, the central bank seems now to be less tolerant of further currency strength. Even without... 2nd July 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update What to expect as the Liberation Day deadline looms Given the limited progress in concluding trade negotiations since Liberation Day, there is a risk that huge tariffs will be imposed on 9 th July after the 90-day pause expires. We suspect that further... 2nd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Canada Outlook: Weak growth to (eventually) prompt more rate cuts The economy faces a period of weak growth as US tariffs and uncertainty over the future of the USMCA weigh on exports and investment. We forecast quarterly GDP growth of less than 1% annualised on... 2nd July 2025 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs imply tariff price pressures only a US story The latest PMIs suggest that while global industrial activity gained some momentum at the end of Q2, this will probably prove short lived. Meanwhile, the surveys continue to suggest that tariffs are... 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun. 2025) Capital inflows into EMs held up well in June despite the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Were higher US tariffs to come into force after President Trump’s 90-day reciprocal tariff reprieve... 30th June 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: High services inflation not a big concern The CPI data showed the Bank of Canada’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures rose by an average of 0.2% m/m in May, which was lower than in the previous month but still a bit too strong... 27th June 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump fast-tracks search for Powell successor Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a careful balance in his semi-annual testimony to Congress this week, offering no signal that a July cut is likely, while keeping the door open to reductions later in... 27th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: US-Mexico trade, Argentina’s rebalancing Timely trade figures out of Mexico this week show that, even though its producers appear to be struggling to make goods USMCA compliant, exports held up reasonably well last month. And leading... 27th June 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Mixed messaging on India-US trade deal prospects President Trump's talking up of the prospects of a "very big" trade deal between India and the US this week are at odds with recent reports which suggest that India's politically sensitive... 27th June 2025 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (June 25) China’s economy slowed in May, with US tariff starting to take a toll on exports. And while consumer spending has picked up recently, that’s largely been driven by temporary subsidies from the... 27th June 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Stronger euro, 50% tariff looming The sustained appreciation of the euro will reduce headline euro-zone inflation slightly in the coming months and, at the margin, strengthens the case for a final interest rate cut in this cycle... 27th June 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: US-China “deal” moves forward but risks remain The trade “deal” reached in Geneva and London has now been finalised and signed. The exact terms have yet to be made public but appear to be limited in scope and still leave economic ties in far worse... 27th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: LDP set to defend majority in Upper House Even though the LDP suffered a crushing defeat in Tokyo’s metropolitan election over the weekend, it looks increasingly likely that the government will be able to defend its majority in next month’s... 27th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Emerging Markets Outlook: Growth concerns to prompt more rate cuts EM exports have held up well this year despite higher US tariffs, but the growth outlook over the second half of the year looks more challenging. We expect a slowdown in most EMs and our forecasts... 26th June 2025 · 28 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (June 2025) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy has had a strong first half of the year and is poised to grow by 7% in both 2025 and... 26th June 2025 · 1 min read
