Europe Economics Update Which sectors are suffering most from the China shock? The euro-zone has been one of the biggest losers from China eating up a larger share of the global export market. It has lost market share across a wide range of industries including vehicles... 11th May 2026 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Apr. 2026) Higher oil prices pushed up import values last month. But soaring chip prices are having an even bigger impact on China’s trade data, pushing up both exports and imports. Price effects aside, the big... 11th May 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly CIT ruling only a minor setback for the administration The federal court ruling this week that the administration unlawfully imposed the 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1974 is only a minor setback for Trump’s tariff... 8th May 2026 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Trump-Xi summit will buy time, not resolve differences Next week's summit between Xi and Trump seems unlikely to deliver much beyond a continuation of the existing truce, although a shift in US language on Taiwan in exchange for pressure on Iran or large... 8th May 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish rhetoric in Central Europe but no rush to tighten Communications from central banks in Czechia and Poland this week suggest that both are set to keep rates unchanged for a long time. That said, policymakers in Poland would probably be the first to... 8th May 2026 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Section 122 Tariff Ruling The narrow Court of International Trade (CIT) ruling against the Trump administration’s 10% Section 122 tariffs does not have any immediate implications for the US effective tariff rate, but it raises... 8th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Energy shock halts Turkey’s rebalancing High energy prices are leading to a surge in Turkey’s imports and have pushed up inflation sharply. While the central bank appears to have room to stand pat for now, a prolonged period of high energy... 5th May 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Mar. 2026) The modest widening of the trade deficit in March, despite another solid rise in goods exports, was less about insatiable AI-driven demand for computer hardware than in recent months, and more about a... 5th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Mar. 2026) The oil-price-driven improvement in Canada’s goods trade balance in March overstates the health of the export sector, with total export volumes falling despite a big rise in the volatile gold sector... 5th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Making sense of BanRep’s hold, Mexico’s export boom Colombia’s central bank (BanRep) defied expectations for another rate hike this week, opting to keep rates unchanged instead, which may raise concerns that the Board is taking President Petro’s... 1st May 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA mixed trade and fiscal data, Kenya’s strains building The impact of the Iran war is likely to lead to a (manageable) deterioration in South Africa’s trade and budget balances this year. Elsewhere, Kenya’s latest data pointed to slowing growth and rising... 1st May 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Some signs of easing manufacturing overcapacity The protection that Chinese firms are receiving from high global energy prices, alongside surging overseas chip demand, have pushed up profit margins in Chinese industry and resulted in a slight... 1st May 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus China’s rising trade surplus and its global implications China’s trade surplus has reached a record 1% of world GDP and looks set to rise further. It’s been driven, in part, by a surge in China’s exports – China has gained export market share across both... 30th April 2026 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: political turmoil adds to rebalancing challenge The vote of no confidence in Romania’s Prime Minister next week looks set to usher in renewed political instability. That will make it much harder to pass the fiscal austerity needed to tackle the... 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How has the war affected the Gulf’s external positions? The impact of the war on balance of payments positions across the Gulf varies by country. Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain are suffering severe blows due to the halt to their energy exports, and their... 30th April 2026 · 6 mins read
