Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Hormuz closure pushing Bahrain to the brink The renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz is likely to create further strains in Bahrain’s balance of payments. FX reserves provide very limited capacity to sustain the dollar peg and roll over... 3rd August 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Chipmaking progress doesn’t change bigger picture While news this week that a Chinese firm has started to mass-produce advanced lithography machines is a momentous development for chipmaking in China, China's hardware lag is still significant. As a... 31st July 2026 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (July 26) At around 3.2% y/y, China’s growth in Q2 was over 1%-pt weaker than official figures suggest. But growth has held steady in the face of the Iran war. Exports have continued to surge, largely driven by... 30th July 2026 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: lower US tariffs, but China will be the key partner Sub-Saharan Africa has come out of the latest round of US tariffs in a better position relative both to last year and to many other EMs. That will provide opportunities for some countries. But even so... 30th July 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update The renminbi could not rebalance China on its own A significant appreciation of the renminbi would narrow China’s enormous trade surplus but it would also make the domestic deflation problem worse. This trade-off can only be addressed if a stronger... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (July 2026) Global growth appears to be regaining momentum, led by the US among advanced economies. We expect this trend to continue, supported by strong AI investment despite the risk posed by renewed... 30th July 2026 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Profit pick-up doesn’t signal overcapacity being resolved The recent pick-up in industrial profit growth is not a sign that excess capacity in China’s manufacturing sector is being meaningfully resolved. Strong profit growth is concentrated in a few sectors... 30th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 26) Economic growth in the region has been resilient in the face of the energy shock, and we think growth will accelerate from here. Although inflation rose last month, most central banks will be able to... 29th July 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (July 2026) Capital inflows into EMs financial markets – particularly equities – have risen over the past month despite the resumption of conflict in the Middle East. Outflows could return again if the situation... 29th July 2026 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (July '26) The renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi threats against Saudi Arabia will set back the nascent recoveries in the Gulf economies. And the downside risks to our forecast for a ~6%... 29th July 2026 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil tariffs: modest macro hit, political boost for Lula Brazil has been in the crosshairs in the US’s latest tariff salvo, which will lead to a renewed drop in exports to the US over the coming months. But the impact on GDP growth and inflation should... 28th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (July 2026) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The region’s performance in Q2 was a mixed bag but lower commodity prices, tighter... 28th July 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (July 2026) The region appears to have come through the energy shock in good shape so far, with economic activity growing strongly in Q2 (Russia and Romania aside) and inflation falling below central banks’... 28th July 2026 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor CAP: China’s growth steady in Q2, despite Iran war Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth picked up in June and held steady over Q2. While weak domestic goods demand has dented industry, that has been offset by stronger services sector growth. 27th July 2026 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Tariff wall rebuild underway The new forced labour Section 301 tariffs that took effect today are only part of the administration’s broader strategy to push the average tariff rate back towards its pre-IEEPA-ruling level of... 24th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Latest tariff threat highlights splintering provincial fortunes The newly announced Section 338 tariffs heap more pain on particular industries while again leaving items such as energy and fertiliser unscathed. This special treatment is shaping relative growth... 24th July 2026 · 4 mins read
