Africa Economics Weekly SA agriculture slump, rand recovers South Africa’s Q1 GDP figures released this week revealed a big drag from the agricultural sector. Some of the factors that weighed on output (namely the weather) are likely to prove temporary but... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Tinubu takes first steps, SA power projects progress In a positive early move, Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu removed fuel subsidies in his first week in power. But it looks like the fiscal savings will be spent, leaving public debt on an upwards... 2nd June 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB warns of higher risk premia, Tinubu takes office One new threat to the inflation outlook that the South African Reserve Bank highlighted at its policy meeting on Thursday was a higher country risk premium which is fuelling downward pressure on the... 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa and AGOA, Nigeria inflation, Ghana-IMF Allegations that South Africa has supplied arms to Russia has led to calls for the country to lose preferential trade access to the US via the African Growth and Opportunities Act which, while not a... 19th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa entering a perfect storm It’s been a week to forget for South Africa, in which fears emerged that the improvement in the public finances is stalling and concerns about (even more) intense loadshedding surfaced. That was... 12th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt distress across SSA: more than meets the eye Sovereign dollar bond spreads have widened across Sub-Saharan Africa this week and are signalling further debt distress, particularly in Kenya, Nigeria and Angola. But we think that sovereign debt... 5th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly MPR shining light on monetary policy thinking in SA The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR), published this week, made it clear that the central bank is increasingly incorporating fiscal risks into its interest rate projections... 28th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Inflation shocks, Ghana growth The surprise rises in inflation in March in Sub-Saharan Africa's two biggest economies are likely to put pressure on policymakers in Nigeria and South Africa to raise interest rates further. Elsewhere... 21st April 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly A breakthrough in the debt restructuring standoff? Glimmers of hope have emerged this week about unlocking the stalemate over the global debt restructuring framework, with encouraging signs for negotiations in Zambia and Ghana. But we fear that the... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Investment-lull in Nigeria, “disaster” no more in SA? The extreme weakness of FDI into Nigeria last year, shown in data published this week, underscores the scale of the economic challenges facing the new government. Without a marked turnaround in... 6th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Monetary policymakers in hawkish mode, debt in focus Central banks in South Africa, Kenya and Ghana all stepped up the pace of monetary tightening this week as concerns about inflation and currency weakness flared up. But we doubt that the rule of... 31st March 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Central banks focus on inflation and currency risks Nigeria’s central bank shrugged off the recent banking sector turmoil and kept its eye firmly focussed on tackling inflation as it hiked interest rates this week and, on balance, we think that... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ripples of global banking turmoil in Sub-Saharan Africa Strains in the global banking system have roiled financial markets, but in Sub-Saharan Africa the main impact of the turmoil is likely to feed through via lower commodity prices and tighter external... 17th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa: cabinet shuffled, economy shaken This week’s cabinet reshuffle in South Africa is unlikely to be a magic bullet to fix the country’s deepening energy crisis. We think that further pain lies in store for the broader economy, as well... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Post-election trickle of reforms in Nigeria, SA navy drills The results of Nigeria’s presidential election were quickly challenged by the opposition this week, which is likely to keep investors on tenterhooks. And even once the dust settles, we suspect that... 3rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly What you need to know about Nigeria’s elections In the final stretch before Nigeria’s elections on Saturday, we answer key questions about the polls and the economic consequences of the vote. 24th February 2023 · 5 mins read
