Africa Economics Weekly Kenya holds rates, Nigeria insecurity worsening The energy price shock prompted the Central Bank of Kenya to halt its easing cycle this week and, while policymakers sound relatively sanguine, they appear to be underestimating the risks from growing... 10th April 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA trade & budget data, SSA activity holds up Trade and budget data released this week suggest that South Africa headed into the energy price shock in decent shape. But we are concerned about the risks that a longer war could pose to the fiscal... 2nd April 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Fuel prices, SARB watching second-round effects African government’s responses to rising fuel prices are falling into two camps: those passing higher costs directly to consumers and those absorbing them. Kenya and Ethiopia are doing the latter but... 27th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly New forecasts for Africa amidst the Iran war As the conflict in the Middle East rumbles on, we’ve adjusted our key macroeconomic forecasts for Sub-Saharan Africa. There are a few countries that stand to benefit from the sharp rise in global... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SSA fuel prices, inflation and the policy response Sub-Saharan Africa looks better placed to face the current energy shock than the last one in 2022. But the region is still vulnerable to the conflict in the Middle East via the impact on fuel supplies... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly How will the Middle East conflict affect Africa The jump in global energy prices on the back of the conflict in the Middle East, if sustained, will provide a windfall for Africa’s key oil producers, such as Nigeria and Angola. We suspect most of... 6th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa Budget, Kenya’s monetary easing cycle South Africa's government opted – as we expected - to use its 2026 Budget to give away its recent revenue windfall. That it was able to do so reflects the remarkable turnaround in the public finances... 27th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly What to expect from South Africa's 2026 Budget? South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will present the 2026 Budget next week against an improving fiscal backdrop, creating scope for another fiscal giveaway. However, a looser fiscal... 20th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ramaphosa's SONA, CBN steps up FX liquidity South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa used his State of the Nation address to outline bold plans to tackle crime and improve infrastructure, but delivering on this will be challenging given the... 13th February 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s DA leadership battle, AGOA is extended While the South African Democratic Alliance's change in leadership in April is unlikely to affect the stability of the Government of National Unity, there are key risks ahead including municipal... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mozambique’s gas project, South Africa auto tariffs Mozambique announced that construction on its Cabo Delgado gas mega-project will restart, but the billions of dollars in revenue that it will bring are some years away, keeping crisis risks high in... 30th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly China-Africa loans, SARB to pause rate cuts New data this week showed Chinese lending to Africa fell again in 2024. But while lending is slowing, trade is not. And we think it's more likely that China-Africa ties deepen rather than weaken from... 23rd January 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola’s aggressive rate cut, SA’s political instability Angola’s central bank cut interest rates by more than expected this week to prop up struggling growth, but growing imbalances make the kwanza vulnerable to falls which could bring this monetary easing... 16th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SSA economies and currencies to fare well in 2026 Zambia’s kwacha has made a bright start to the year, while the naira and rand have also posted early gains. And we expect most African currencies to fare well over the course of 2026. The risk of... 9th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Lobito rail project, oil prices Angola secured additional financing from the US and other partners this week as it looks to press ahead with the Lobito rail project underlining the Trump administration’s transactional approach to... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenyan shilling, South Africa’s port deal Kenya’s central bank cut interest rates by another 25bp earlier this week, to 9.00%, but the extent of further monetary loosening is likely to rest on what happens next with the shilling, which is... 12th December 2025 · 7 mins read
