Africa Economics Weekly Odinga’s passing, oil prices drop, Nigeria inflation The passing this week of Raila Odinga, a prominent politician in Kenya, is likely to result in his party being less committed to the governing alliance with President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance... 17th October 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya-Angola fiscal worries, Cocoa Price, Uganda GDP Angola joined Kenya this week in tapping the dollar bond market, but both countries continue to face fiscal consolidation challenges, meaning sovereign default concerns will linger. Meanwhile, Côte d... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria reforms, Ghana and Kenya inflation President Tinubu used his Independence Day address this week to talk up recent improvements in GDP growth and the balance of payments position. He also celebrated the jump in tax revenue this year... 3rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly AGOA expiry looms, Taiwan chips curbs, Nigeria GDP The African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) is set to expire on Tuesday and, while this would deal only a modest blow at a macro level, it would mark yet another way in which the US is disengaging... 26th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa pauses easing cycle, Angola starts its The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to leave the repo rate unchanged looks like a pause rather than a halt in the monetary easing cycle. We expect inflation expectations to trend lower from here... 19th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA current account, Ghana GDP, Nigeria fiscal policy Data out this week showed that South Africa’s current account deficit has widened, but the shortfall is still small and suggests the rand will continue to hold up and that the Reserve Bank can cut... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Angolan oil, Ghana CPI & cedi, SA inflation target Angola's oil sector is continuing to struggle and, while investment announcements from multinationals this week should help eventually, a backdrop of lower oil prices and a fragile fiscal position... 5th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa SWIFT ban? Tanzania election News this week that South Africa's government is evaluating the risk that it might be banned from the SWIFT messaging system is alarming. And while such an outcome seems extreme, this tail risk... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Kenya’s finance scramble, South Africa CPI and rates Kenya’s efforts to deal with its fiscal problems may alleviate short-term pressures, but we remain concerned that the path to avoiding sovereign default in the medium term remains narrow. Elsewhere... 22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa unemployment, Kenya’s fiscal challenges The rise in South Africa’s unemployment rate in Q2 reinforces our view that inflation will stay subdued, further interest rate cuts are coming and local currency bond yields will continue to decline... 15th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Zambia IMF money, Lower West African cocoa harvests Zambia secured another disbursement from the IMF this week and, given severe fiscal strains, it seems most likely that policymakers will seek a successor programme when the current one ends in October... 8th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA, Mozambique and Ghana cut rates, US tariffs Central banks in Ghana, Mozambique and South Africa continued their monetary easing cycles this week, and the dovish tone of South Africa's meeting supports our below-consensus rate forecast... 1st August 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA interest rate cuts, Nigeria tax reform The weak inflation reading for June out of South Africa this week strengthens the case for the SARB to cut interest rates on Thursday. And further out we think that rates will be lowered by more than... 25th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Nigeria inflation, South Africa G20 & low inflation Nigeria’s inflation slowed again last month, and we think high real interest rates and a stable naira will allow disinflation to continue. The surprise rise in core inflation, however, is likely to... 18th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa’s tariff, US courting West Africa South Africa was once again threatened with a 30% reciprocal US tariff, but we worry its testy US relationship means the risk of higher tariffs has not gone away – particularly in light of Brazil’s... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SARB lower target and nationalisation, Ghana inflation Data released this week showing a further decline in inflation expectations in South Africa provide further ammunition for those arguing that the time is right for the SARB’s inflation target to be... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
