Africa Economics Weekly SA rates takeaways, Côte d’Ivoire Eurobonds The South African MPC’s concerns expressed at this week’s meeting about an inflation resurgence look overdone, but with fiscal risks high ahead of the election, officials will continue to tread... 26th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA rates, Kenya debt swap, Nigeria loans Remarks this week from SARB Governor Kganyago increase the chances of interest rates in South Africa staying high for longer, particularly if fiscal risks build ahead of the election. Kenya, meanwhile... 19th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa IRP, Transnet cash, World Bank optimism South Africa presented its draft energy plan, which brought bad news to those concerned about loadshedding and the commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, the country’s finance... 12th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria deficit, Ethiopia-Somalia tensions, Kenya GDP Nigeria’s 2024 budget, signed into law this week, included encouraging signs that the government will cease deficit monetisation, providing hope that the Tinubu administration’s reform momentum hasn’t... 5th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia IMF deal, Angola leaves OPEC, DRC elections Zambia’s continued progress with fiscal consolidation is paying dividends. It unlocked the latest tranche of its IMF deal this week and its compliance with the Fund’s targets may help to progress debt... 22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ethiopia default, SA activity, Ghana inflation fall Ethiopia’s sovereign default appears imminent after the government missed a coupon payment on its 2024 Eurobond this week. The prominence of Chinese and private bondholders in Africa continues to... 15th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly CBK supports the shilling, SA current account The Kenyan central bank’s surprise 200bp interest rate hike, to 12.50%, on Tuesday was clearly aimed at shoring up the currency. There are other reasons to think that pressure on the shilling will... 8th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa financial stability risks, Kenya’s housing levy The South African Reserve Bank’s Financial Stability Review out this week shone the spotlight on the risks posed by local banks’ growing holdings of government debt – risks that are only likely to... 1st December 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria resists hikes, Zambia debt, Transnet problems Zambia and Angola raised interest rates this week in response to high inflation, but Nigeria didn’t. Indeed, the scheduled CBN meeting for this week didn’t even take place. The Bank now has its work... 24th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly CBN’s low credibility, Africa debt, South Africa activity CBN Governor Cardoso’s remarks this week reaffirmed his ambition to restore the credibility of the Bank. So far, though, a clear strategy to stabilise the naira and inflation has been lacking. The... 17th November 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya default risks fall, Dangote oil refinery ramps-up Kenya’s partial payment of its $2bn Eurobond will improve its chances of avoiding a sovereign default next year. Extra IMF funds and an improved balance of payment position will also help, but... 10th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly AGOA, EU-China influence, MTBPS Even as African officials push for an extension of a key US-Africa trade agreement, it was announced this week that Uganda will lose duty-free access to the US from next year in response to the... 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa food prices, SARB resignation, Zambia bond deal Inflation across Africa has been falling back recently, but persistent food price pressures pose a threat to policymaker’s ambitions to start cutting interest rates. In South Africa, the resignation... 27th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria spending, debt problems, South Africa CPI Sovereign debt restructuring discussions between Zambia and Ghana and their bilateral creditors have been encouraging, but challenging talks with private lenders remain. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s... 20th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana inflation, Nigerian oil, IMF forecasts The fall in inflation in Ghana in September gives the central bank some leeway to consider cutting rates at its next meeting. Elsewhere, data out this week showed that Nigeria’s crude oil output rose... 13th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria strike, Kenya debt, Oxford malaria vaccine This week, Nigeria avoided a potentially disruptive workers’ strike after a late government offer of short-term relief measures, but these risk adding to fiscal and inflationary pressures. Meanwhile... 6th October 2023 · 5 mins read
