Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ: One last cut for the road We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to close out its easing cycle with a 25bp cut at its meeting ending on 26th November. Our sense is that the Bank will want to take out a final bit of... 19th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates to 3.1% by end-2026 When the RBA left policy settings unchanged at its meeting today, it struck a rather even-handed tone on the risks to its outlook. Although an extended pause appears likely given the ongoing strength... 4th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rapid housing rebound will keep RBA on the sidelines Australia’s housing rally showed no signs of slowing in October. Given the RBA’s ongoing concerns about shelter inflation, the data reinforce our view that policy easing is unlikely to be on the... 3rd November 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand’s underperformance won’t last The prolonged underperformance of New Zealand’s economy has contributed to the Kiwi dollar being the worst-performing G10 currency last month, even as the Australian dollar was the best-performer... 7th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s house price growth may reach 7% House price growth retained its strong momentum in September and our leading index suggests the rally has further to run. But with affordability still very stretched, we suspect that the housing... 1st October 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates to 3.1% in early-2026 While the RBA predictably left rates on hold at its meeting today, its relatively hawkish messaging raises the risk that its easing cycle will be more drawn out than we’re currently expecting. That... 30th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s housing rebound continues to gather steam Australian house prices rose at their fastest pace in 18 months in August. With leading indicators suggesting further gains are on the cards, we’re inclined to revise up our forecast for house prices... 1st September 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s independence not under threat While New Zealand’s Prime Minister has indicated a desire for more aggressive policy loosening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the institutional framework limits the government’s ability to... 28th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update How rising defence spending will impact Asia Defence spending across Asia is set to rise over the coming years, driven in part by increased pressure from the US for its allies to shoulder more of their own security costs. While the overall boost... 27th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Don’t blame the public sector for Australia's productivity malaise Even though direct government spending now accounts for the largest share of GDP on record, we aren’t convinced that this explains the prolonged weakness in productivity growth. 21st August 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will cut rates to 2.5% by year-end When the RBNZ slashed rates by 25bp today, it effectively endorsed our long-held forecast for a below-consensus terminal rate of 2.5%. However, with the Bank judging the balance of risks to the... 20th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will lower cash rate to 2.85% by mid-2026 The RBA endorsed market expectations of further easing when it lowered the cash today and we think the Bank will ultimately slash rates to 2.85%. 12th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update NZD and AUD likely to struggle over the rest of the year The high-beta Antipodean currencies had been the worst victims of global trade tensions but have fared better since early April, relative to their G10 peers, as global risk appetite steadily improved... 7th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update New US tariff regime still not the end of the story President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Affordability will dampen Australia’s housing rebound Australia’s housing market gained traction in June, and leading indicators suggest the housing rebound has further to run. But with affordability set to remain extremely stretched despite the RBA’s... 1st August 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to cut further as property sector remains weak New Zealand’s housing market is still struggling to recover from its steep post-pandemic downturn. Although we still expect it to turn the corner in the coming months, the risk is that it will remain... 15th July 2025 · 5 mins read
