Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Off-budget boost to spending won’t last The federal budget foresees an unusually large jump in cash outflows that don’t feed into the underlying cash balance in 2024/25. However, the actual boost to activity will be much smaller than the... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will deliver a 50bp cut next Wednesday We expect the RBNZ to move its easing cycle up a gear and cut the Official Cash Rate by 50bp at its meeting next week. What’s more, given the Bank’s tendency to loosen policy aggressively, we think... 2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) With new listings rising rapidly, the housing market is shifting in favour of buyers. Accordingly, we think house price growth will ease further in the months ahead. 1st October 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Surge in serviceability-exempted loans not a big threat While banks have issued more housing loans that don’t meet APRA’s serviceability guidelines over the last couple of years, we aren’t convinced that this poses significant risks to financial stability. 30th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will only cut rates in first half of next year The RBA didn’t discuss a rate hike at today’s meeting for the first time since March but reiterated its pledge that it won’t cut interest rates “in the near-term”. While the risks are starting to tilt... 24th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) With transaction volumes moderating and inventory rising, we expect the Australian housing market to cool in months ahead. 2nd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Employment growth probably weaker than reported We believe that employment growth isn’t as strong as the Australian Bureau of Statistics is reporting because net migration seems to have weakened more sharply than the ABS is assuming. While it will... 21st August 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will loosen policy aggressively The RBNZ began its easing cycle with a 25bp rate cut at its meeting today. Although the Bank appeared to strike a cautious tone about further policy easing, we think it will cut rates more... 14th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to kickstart its easing cycle next week We are in the minority of forecasters who expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hand down a 25bp rate cut at its meeting next week. Moreover, with excess capacity in the economy rising rapidly, we... 7th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update With RBA remaining hawkish, rate cuts will have to wait Although the RBA left rates on hold today, it poured cold water on market expectations that it will loosen policy later this year. With the economy still running above its speed limit, we continue to... 6th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) Australian house prices gained a bit of momentum in July. However, leading indicators continue to suggest that the housing market will cool markedly in the months ahead. Even if house price growth... 1st August 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cycle In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact... 30th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Making sense of Australia’s two-speed housing cycle Much of the recent resilience in Australia’s house price growth can be attributed to a handful of capital cities where the property markets have gone from strength to strength. We believe that there... 23rd July 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What to make of May’s plunge in household spending The Monthly Household Spending Indicator is often revised several months later so the plunge in spending in May won’t deter the Reserve Bank of Australia from hiking rates next month if inflation... 8th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s tightening bias is on its last legs We expect the RBNZ to leave rates on hold for a seventh consecutive time at its meeting next Wednesday. To be sure, the Bank will probably strike a hawkish tone out of an abundance of caution. However... 3rd July 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) Australian house price gains softened just a smidge in June as housing demand held up reasonably well. However, as strained affordability takes its toll, we still think that house price growth will... 1st July 2024 · 3 mins read
