Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA will only cut rates next year

The RBA discussed another rate hike at today’s meeting and an upside surprise to Q2 inflation could force its hand at its August meeting. However, with capacity constraints easing and government...

18th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Wage growth will undershoot RBA’s forecasts

This year’s minimum wage increase will be a bit smaller than we had anticipated. And with the looser labour market putting downward pressure on wage growth among workers not covered by the minimum...

3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May)

While house price growth accelerated rather sharply in May, stretched affordability points to a renewed slowdown. Indeed, most leading indicators point to a renewed moderation in price growth.

3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

​​RBNZ policy changes will ease lending standards​

The debt-to-income restrictions launched by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today won’t restrict the flow of new mortgage lending. In fact, the concurrent easing of restrictions on loan-to-value...

28th May 2024 · 5 mins read

FX Markets Update

AUD & NZD to outperform other G10 currencies

We think the kiwi and the aussie strength will continue over the next couple of years as we expect they will be among the last developed economies to start an easing cycle.

24th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ signals rate cuts may have to wait

Although it left rates unchanged at its meeting today, the RBNZ indicated that interest rates may have to stay higher for longer. However, we think the Bank is overstating the upside risks to the...

22nd May 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Update

What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy

We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of...

15th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Chalmers’ fight against inflation goes nowhere

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has sought to present the 2024/25 Budget as one that strikes a balance between providing support to an ailing economy and keeping pressure off inflation. In our view, that’s...

15th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ to cut rates more aggressively than most expect

We expect the RBNZ to leave policy settings unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the domestic economic backdrop is clearly weak, lingering risks around inflation persistence means policy...

14th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Downturn in homebuilding has much further to run

The blowout in the pipeline of unfinished houses during the pandemic will reverse by the end of this year. With building approvals very low, dwellings investment will therefore fall further. While...

13th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Inflationary pressures in the labour market set to chill

All signs are that unit labour cost growth in New Zealand will plummet in the coming quarters. Coupled with subdued domestic demand, that should feed through to lower non-tradables inflation in short...

9th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA continues to eye its so-called “narrow path”

The RBA’s decision to leave rates on hold at its meeting today suggests that there is a high bar for any further tightening of monetary policy. Indeed, the Board seems keen on minimising the...

7th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Apr.)

The housing rebound that began early last year continued to lose momentum in April. With affordability likely to remain stretched for the foreseeable future, house price growth will only ease further...

1st May 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

The shortfalls of the Monthly CPI Indicator

The different treatment of prices collected annually is a key reason why the quarterly CPI measure rose much faster last quarter than the Monthly CPI Indicator had indicated. While it’s possible to...

29th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Productivity malaise may last until end of this decade

Weak capital spending is a key reason for Australia’s poor productivity performance. While investment growth has been strong recently, we think it will take until the second half of this decade before...

15th April 2024 · 4 mins read