Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ will start loosening policy in Q3

We expect the RBNZ to hold rates steady at its meeting next Wednesday. But with the economy in a deep slump and inflation clearly on the way down, the Committee is likely to tone down its tightening...

3rd April 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.)

Australian house prices continued to pare their gains last month. And a further loss of momentum appears likely in the near term, especially given that the RBA is unlikely to come to the housing...

2nd April 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA tones down hawkish bias ever so slightly

The RBA sounded a touch less hawkish at today’s meeting and we think the Bank will start to lower interest rates by August.

19th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.)

Australian house price gains eased only slightly in February. However, with home sales now softening noticeably, we suspect that the momentum behind the housing rebound will soon fade.

1st March 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ’s tightening bias is on borrowed time

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand handed down another hawkish hold at its meeting today. However, with inflation on track to return to its 1-3% target by mid-year, we still expect the Bank to start...

28th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Inflation will fall into target band this year

Non-labour input costs are now moderating which should soon result in a more rapid slowdown in consumer price inflation than most are anticipating.

15th February 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ will continue to watch, worry, and wait

With activity and inflation both softer than it had expected a few months ago, the RBNZ will likely stay put at its meeting at the end of the month. However, with a still-tight labour market fuelling...

14th February 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA pours cold water on the prospect of early rate cuts

With the Reserve Bank of Australia still striking a hawkish tone at its meeting today, we’re pushing back our forecast for the Bank’s first rate cut from May. But we still think that incoming data...

6th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.)

Although house price gains remained firm in January, we still expect them to soften in the months ahead. While rate cuts are on the horizon, they will do little to improve homebuying capacity.

1st February 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Regulatory changes won’t affect house price outlook

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand launched a consultation on changes to its macroprudential framework last week. In our view, the proposed tweaks are unlikely to have a meaningful impact on the housing...

30th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Case for tighter macroprudential measures is weak

While Australian households are as indebted as ever and mortgage payments have hit fresh record-highs, lending standards continue to be sound, loan defaults remain subdued and banks are well...

23rd January 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Is the low saving rate an accounting illusion?

Australian household finances are in better shape than the plunge in the household savings rate would suggest. While we still think that GDP growth will slow more sharply than expected over the coming...

4th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.)

We are resending this publication because it was incorrectly sent as an Australia and New Zealand Rapid Response. Australia’s housing market showed signs of life in December. However, we still think...

2nd January 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia Housing Watch

Although house prices in Melbourne have started to fall anew, we doubt that they are the canary in the coal mine. A persistent shortfall in housing supply should ensure that house prices across most...

21st December 2023 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

How greedy is Australia’s taxman?

While the income tax cuts due next year are widely seen as necessary to reverse bracket creep, the income tax burden isn’t particularly onerous by historical standards. However, Australia taxes income...

20th December 2023 · 4 mins read