Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will hike rates to 4.60% this year The RBA's decision to hike rates this week was underpinned by its view that upside risks to inflation outweigh downside risks to employment. We suspect that will remain the case for some time. Given... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hauser’s hawkishness heralds a hike In a podcast this week, RBA Deputy Governor made no bones about his view that the Bank needed to bolster its inflation-fighting credentials. His concerns that the Iran conflict could exacerbate price... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Energy price spike more bane than boon for Australia Despite being a net energy exporter, Australia is unlikely to gain much from the ongoing surge in energy prices. This is largely because oil and gas firms are not reinvesting their profits to boost... 6th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Aussie firms on capex spree, Ardern joins Kiwi exodus The evidence that the Australian economy is operating with excess demand continues to pile up. We learnt this week that private capex growth surged to a two-year high in Q4. Moreover, with firms... 27th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The case for back-to-back hikes by the RBA Data released this week continue to indicate that the Australian economy is running up against capacity constraints. The relatively modest pickup in wage growth last quarter belies the fact that unit... 20th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia still facing elevated capacity pressures Data released this week reinforce the need for the RBA to tighten policy settings. Provisional figures suggest that private consumption growth accelerated in Q4 and is running above the pace... 13th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA has more work to do We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to follow up this week’s 25bp hike with additional policy tightening in the months ahead. Indeed, with growth set to accelerate further above potential this... 6th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Persistence in shelter inflation will keep RBA on edge With inflation once again surprising to the upside of its expectations, the Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly raise interest rates at its meeting next week. Moreover, much to the Bank’s... 29th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy continues to run hot We learned this week that Australia’s unemployment rate fell to a seven-month low in December. The strength of the labour market is a key reason to expect consumption growth to remain brisk in the... 23rd January 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Spending binge reinforces case for RBA to hike With Australian households continuing to loosen their purse strings, private consumption is almost certain to have recorded a bumper gain last quarter. Moreover, as firms report increasingly severe... 16th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Case for February rate hike remains intact Following the release of weaker than expected November inflation figures, the financial markets now only see a small chance of a rate hike at the RBA's next meeting in February. However, if the Q4 CPI... 9th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand’s economy isn’t in the clear just yet Following a strong rebound in the New Zealand economy in Q3, financial markets are increasingly pricing in the start of a new RBNZ tightening cycle in the months ahead. However, we remain sceptical... 19th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soft labour market data won’t keep RBA from hiking When the Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold this week, it clearly signalled that it has a tightening bias. Although the weak November jobs report complicates the outlook somewhat, we suspect... 12th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Upside risks in the spotlight ahead of RBA meeting The modest pickup in Australia's Q3 GDP belies the fact that domestic demand rose at its fastest pace in over two years. With fiscal policy set to remain loose and the private sector springing back... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA is done cutting rates this cycle With underlying inflation continuing to surprise to the upside and domestic demand being propped up by a revival in private investment, we no longer expect the RBA to loosen policy any further... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflationary pressures will abate before long The Reserve Bank of Australia continues to equivocate about the outlook for interest rates, given uncertainty over the extent of spare capacity in the economy. However, with wage pressures showing... 21st November 2025 · 5 mins read
