Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong data out of Australia, Luxon’s faux pas There are tentative signs that the Australian economy may be starting to heat up. We learnt that underlying inflation accelerated anew in July, while a new ABS survey showed that firms are becoming... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBNZ turns dovish, Australia discusses tax reform When the RBNZ cut rates by 25bp at its meeting this week, it acknowledged that it would need to lower the policy rate all the way to 2.5% this cycle – consistent with our longstanding forecast. And... 22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Strong jobs market won’t keep RBA from easing further When the RBA delivered a 25bp cut this week, it signalled a willingness to lower rates below 3% for the first time this cycle. Although subsequently released labour market and wage data surprised... 15th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Productivity growth picking up in New Zealand While the Q2 labour force survey out of New Zealand showed that labour demand remains dismal, it's worth noting that firms have been squeezing more out of their existing employees. The resultant lift... 8th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: CPI data signal green light for August rate cut Australian CPI data released this week will have gone a long way toward assuaging the RBA's concerns about lingering price pressures in the economy. And although retail sales picked up strongly in... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA’s gradualism poses upside risks to rates The minutes of the RBA's July meeting showed that the Board remains reluctant to declare victory in the war on inflation – a sentiment reiterated by Governor Bullock in a speech this week. We suspect... 25th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Labour market not an obstacle to RBA rate cuts The strong uptick in Australia's unemployment rate in June may be overstating the actual degree of slack in the labour market. After all, the underutilisation rate remains historically low and... 18th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA to drag out easing cycle as caution prevails The RBA’s decision to leave rates unchanged at its meeting this week came as a surprise to most. As it turns out, a majority of the Board preferred to wait for the full Q2 CPI data (due by end-July)... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Could the RBA stand pat next Tuesday? Some observers have argued that the ongoing calm in global markets may prompt the RBA to leave rates unchanged at its 8th July meeting, given its preference to move in a cautious manner. However, we... 4th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA will cut rates to 2.85% by early-2026 There are growing signs that Australia's economic recovery is struggling for momentum. Moreover, both CPI data and business surveys suggest that this weakness in activity is translating into softer... 27th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Slowing migration may keep RBA in a dovish mood Australia's population growth has declined by nearly 1%-pt since its post-pandemic peak, driven in large part by a normalisation in international student arrivals. The drop in foreign student numbers... 20th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Recovery appears to be stumbling in the Antipodes New survey data suggest that business conditions in Australia continued to deteriorate in May. Moreover, with firms also reporting a renewed easing in cost and price pressures, risks are tilting... 13th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Soft GDP data put July cut in play for RBA With Australia's economic recovery faltering, there is a growing risk that the RBA will cut rates at its next meeting in July, rather than in August as we currently forecast. However, even if the Bank... 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Weak economy will force RBNZ's hand When it cut rates by 25bp this week, the RBNZ indicated that it would take a somewhat cautious approach to policy setting going forward. However, the recent flow of data suggest that New Zealand... 30th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t go overboard with cuts, NZ Budget falls flat In light of the RBA's dovish messaging at its meeting this week, we have revised down our terminal rate forecast from 3.60% to 3.35%. However, we doubt that the Bank will cut rates all the way to 3.10... 23rd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t claim victory in inflation fight just yet Although the RBA is almost certain to slash its policy rate by 25bp at its meeting next Tuesday, it will probably remain cautious about commiting to further policy easing. After all, business surveys... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
