Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Changes to housing tax breaks could hit rental supply

The Australian government is reportedly considering clamping down on tax breaks for property investors. If the government did indeed reduce and/or phase out existing tax concessions, it would make the...

4th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA to start easing policy from next February

Although the RBA predictably left rates on hold at its meeting this week, it did soften its hawkish bias a touch. And with the latest CPI data pointing to a noticeable slowdown in underlying inflation...

27th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Tight labour market will delay interest rate relief

The August labour force release provided little justification for the RBA to renege on its pledge to keep interest rates unchanged at least until the end of the year. Not only is employment growth on...

20th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Government isn’t what’s keeping the RBA from cutting

We aren't convinced that the recent surge in public sector employment is the main cause behind Australia's poor productivity performance and stubborn inflationary pressures. But with the latest survey...

13th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA to hold the line despite consumption squeeze

National accounts data published this week showed that the Australian economy slowed to a grind last quarter, while private consumption fell outright. However, we suspect that the RBA will take that...

6th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Cap on foreign students could stymie growth in 2025

The Australian government is working to pass legislation that would cap international student commencements at 270,000 in 2025, a significant step down from its current level of around 400,000. While...

30th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA will look past buoyant public demand

We are resending this publication because we have adjusted our forecast for the monthly CPI indicator due next week. The minutes of the RBA's August meeting revealed that the Bank remains concerned...

23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBNZ likely to loosen faster than it has signalled

When it kicked off its easing cycle this week, the RBNZ indicated that it would take a measured approach to cutting rates over the coming months. However, we think the Bank is understating the...

16th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Market optimism for RBA rate cuts seems misplaced

We're sending this Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed on Friday for National Day. Financial markets have largely shrugged off...

8th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Could the RBA still hike rates?

Following the downside surprise in Australia's Q2 CPI data, investors are betting that rate cuts will be on the table before long. While we do agree that the RBA's next move is likely to be down, that...

2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Antipodean central banks to part ways on policy

A new survey of businesses shows that New Zealand's retail industry is in dire straits. Given the sizeable contribution of retail trade to employment, the risk is that the labour market will...

26th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBNZ now likely to start cutting rates in August

Given the recent slate of weak economic data we now expect the RBNZ to start loosening policy in August, rather than in November as we were previously predicting. For one thing, timely activity data...

19th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Despite some snags, inflation will cool in earnest

Administered price inflation is looking to be somewhat sticky in Australia, reflecting a combination of tax increases on select goods and elevated cost pressures across a range of public services. On...

12th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Softening domestic demand will keep RBA from hiking

With inflation risks still running high, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been reluctant to drop its tightening bias. However, we still expect the Board to leave rates on hold at its upcoming August...

5th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA won’t loosen policy before mid-2025

Following the upside surprise in the May CPI data released this week, markets are now pricing in a nearly two-in-five chance that the RBA will hand down a 25bp hike by year-end. But there are good...

28th June 2024 · 4 mins read