Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will hike rates to 4.60% this year The RBA's decision to hike rates this week was underpinned by its view that upside risks to inflation outweigh downside risks to employment. We suspect that will remain the case for some time. Given... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Feb. 26) With inflation set to approach 5%, the renewed rise in the unemployment in February won’t prevent the RBA from hiking rates further. 19th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Energy crisis won’t hasten Australia’s shift to renewables The Iran conflict has exposed Australia’s continued reliance on fossil fuels, reigniting debate over a green energy pivot. While the government has legislated ambitious climate targets, it has shown... 17th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will hike rates again in May Although the RBA’s decision to raise rates at its meeting today was made by the narrowest of margins, the split vote primarily reflected differences regarding the timing of the move rather than the... 17th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (March 2026) Amid concerns that the ongoing energy price spike will adversely affect the inflation outlook, the RBA raised rates by 25bp at its meeting today. However, the decision was made by the narrowest of... 17th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily War and monetary policy, and what it means for markets Major central bank meetings this week will give investors an early sense of how monetary policymakers will respond to the war. We suspect there isn’t much good news in the offing for bonds. 16th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Energy shortages rippling through Australian supply chains With supplies of crude oil from the Gulf dwindling, local prices of petroleum products imported from the Asia-Pacific region have already risen more sharply than movements in crude oil prices would... 16th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hauser’s hawkishness heralds a hike In a podcast this week, RBA Deputy Governor made no bones about his view that the Bank needed to bolster its inflation-fighting credentials. His concerns that the Iran conflict could exacerbate price... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Last hurrah for Australian iron ore mining Resources exports rose strongly last year, driven by a jump in iron ore exports. However, the bigger picture is that global steel output is past its peak and a sustained pick-up in mining investment... 12th March 2026 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will deliver back-to-back hikes in March and May We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates by 25bp at its meeting ending on 17th March. The conditions for a sustained acceleration in inflation were in place even before the Iran conflict... 10th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Soaring oil prices may prompt RBNZ to hike this year The surge in energy prices will prompt the RBA to hike rates by another 25bp at its meeting next week and increases the chances that the RBNZ will start tightening policy before the end of the year. 9th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Energy price spike more bane than boon for Australia Despite being a net energy exporter, Australia is unlikely to gain much from the ongoing surge in energy prices. This is largely because oil and gas firms are not reinvesting their profits to boost... 6th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Jan. 26) The tepid rise in consumer spending lessens the urgency for the RBA to hike rates at its upcoming meeting in mid-March. Even so, the Bank has more work to do in order to close the positive output gap... 5th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia's public sector adding to inflationary pressures Australia’s public sector can’t be blamed for the renewed acceleration in inflation across the second half of last year. But the inexorable surge in public spending in recent years is a key reason why... 4th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q4 2025) Although the underlying details were a mixed bag, we suspect the RBA will still be concerned that growth is running above potential in Australia. 4th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s housing market loses some steam Australian house prices pared their gains in February, as housing demand softened a touch. Although the slowdown was driven largely by Sydney and Melbourne, we suspect it will become more broad-based... 2nd March 2026 · 3 mins read
