Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: Soft GDP data put July cut in play for RBA

With Australia's economic recovery faltering, there is a growing risk that the RBA will cut rates at its next meeting in July, rather than in August as we currently forecast. However, even if the Bank...

6th June 2025 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia GDP (Q1 2025)

Although activity was off to a poor start in 2025, the persistent strength in unit labour cost growth will constrain the RBA’s ability to provide much policy support.

4th June 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA will look past minimum wage increase

While this year’s minimum wage hike will be only slightly smaller than last year’s, it is unlikely to prevent a further slowdown in wage growth over the coming quarters. That said, with capacity...

3rd June 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

RBA Minutes (May 2025)

Although the RBA's easing cycle has further to run, it is unlikely to cut rates as far as markets are anticipating.

3rd June 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia in store for a tepid housing rebound

Australian house prices edged up a notch in May, and leading indicators suggest they will gather further momentum over the coming months. However, with debt-servicing costs set to remain onerous...

2nd June 2025 · 3 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

Is US equity exceptionalism back for good?

We’re nudging up our forecasts for equities in most non-US developed markets, partly in response to our upwardly revised projections for the S&P 500. But we still think they’ll lag equities in the US...

30th May 2025 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: Weak economy will force RBNZ's hand

When it cut rates by 25bp this week, the RBNZ indicated that it would take a somewhat cautious approach to policy setting going forward. However, the recent flow of data suggest that New Zealand...

30th May 2025 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Apr. 2025)

Despite the ongoing slump in consumer spending, we’re not convinced the RBA will cut rates as aggressively as markets are anticipating.

30th May 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

ANZ Chart Pack (May 2025)

Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although continued trade tensions have heightened economic uncertainty, they have had only a modest...

29th May 2025 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (April 2025)

With underlying price pressures proving somewhat persistent, we're sticking to our view that the RBA won't cut rates as far as markets are anticipating.

28th May 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus

How will Australia weather the China slowdown?

Although the détente in the trade war may provide some respite to the Chinese economy in the near term, we remain pessimistic about its longer run prospects. The slowdown in China will undoubtedly...

27th May 2025 · 15 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t go overboard with cuts, NZ Budget falls flat

In light of the RBA's dovish messaging at its meeting this week, we have revised down our terminal rate forecast from 3.60% to 3.35%. However, we doubt that the Bank will cut rates all the way to 3.10...

23rd May 2025 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Rate cuts won’t result in faster house price growth

With housing affordability still extremely stretched, we expect house price growth to remain muted even as mortgage rates are set to fall further. However, there’s more scope for dwellings prices to...

22nd May 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Flash PMIs (May 2025)

The step-down in business activity this month, combined with signs of easing price pressures, supports our view that the RBA’s easing cycle has further to run.

22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA will cut rates to 3.35% by year-end

When the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates by 25bp at its meeting today, it signalled greater confidence that it had brought inflation under control, while sounding increasingly concerned that...

20th May 2025 · 3 mins read