RBNZ Watch RBNZ will cut rates by 50bp next week Although financial markets aren’t fully convinced, we believe the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will lower its policy rate by 50bp at its meeting ending on 8 th October. With the output gap deeply... 1st October 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s house price growth may reach 7% House price growth retained its strong momentum in September and our leading index suggests the rally has further to run. But with affordability still very stretched, we suspect that the housing... 1st October 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tankan (Q3 25) The latest Tankan survey confirms that Japan’s economy is shrugging off trade tensions and supports our long-held view that the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle this month. 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Slower growth to trigger more rate cuts EM growth has been resilient to US import tariffs, but headwinds from fiscal tightening, softer labour markets and (for some) lower commodity prices will drag growth down over the coming year. Most of... 30th September 2025 · 26 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Asia Chart Pack (September 2025) Our Asia Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With growth likely to remain weak in the coming months and inflation subdued, further interest rate... 30th September 2025 · 0 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly The changing face of “climate leadership” If anyone was still confused about President Trump’s position on green policies, his description of climate change as “the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world” at the UN General Assembly... 30th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q3 2025) The gradual recovery in property values is set to continue in Europe over the next few years, but we think values have further to fall in the US and APAC as they adjust to the higher interest rate... 30th September 2025 · 0 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 25) Growth has remained broadly stable since the start of the year, despite US tariffs. Still, the economy is weaker than official figures suggest. Fiscal support and exports will continue to be key... 30th September 2025 · 0 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates to 3.1% in early-2026 While the RBA predictably left rates on hold at its meeting today, its relatively hawkish messaging raises the risk that its easing cycle will be more drawn out than we’re currently expecting. That... 30th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Sep. 2025) While the RBA’s decision to leave rates on hold today was all but a foregone conclusion, the Bank’s more hawkish messaging raises the risk that it won’t cut rates as far and/or as quickly as we’re... 30th September 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Sep. 2025) The PMIs suggest that China’s economy accelerated this month, partly due to resilient exports. But with fiscal easing set to provide less of a prop over the coming months, we are sceptical that... 30th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Aug. 25) While the August activity data confirm that Japan’s GDP declined this quarter, that follows a strong performance over the past year and we doubt it will prevent the BoJ from resuming its tightening... 30th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Tokyo CPI is overstating the pace of disinflation The Tokyo CPI is overstating the pace at which inflation is moderating across Japan and we still believe that the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle at its October meeting. 29th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Health care may not have a speedy recovery, despite tariff relief The share prices of some of the world’s largest health care companies have rallied a bit today, despite Donald Trump’s announcement yesterday of a tariff of 100% on US imports of branded or patented... 26th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2025) Capital inflows into EMs continued last month, with the restart of Fed easing and further declines in the dollar supporting bond inflows in particular. While we expect EM currencies to depreciate over... 26th September 2025 · 0 mins read
Commodities Weekly Supply uncertainties re-emerge as key driver of prices For all the recent focus on soft demand dynamics, developments on the supply side have been the main driver of oil prices this week. Heightened uncertainty is driving pessimism among US oil producers... 26th September 2025 · 4 mins read
