Bank of Japan Watch BoJ will only resume tightening cycle next year With two Board members already voting for a rate hike at the September meeting, a hike at the Bank of Japan’s meeting that ends on 30 th October can’t be ruled out. However, the Bank’s leadership... 23rd October 2025 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update Is China immune to US tariffs? China’s exports have been far more resilient in the face of US tariffs than many had expected. But some damage has still been done – our calculations point to a 0.3% of GDP hit as of September. And... 22nd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update How will Philippines’ anti-corruption drive affect activity? The experience from other emerging markets suggests that, even if the ongoing corruption scandal in the Philippines doesn’t fuel further unrest, a more concerted effort by the government to clamp down... 22nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 2025) Bank Indonesia unexpectedly left its benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.75% today but the accompanying communications suggest that further easing remains more likely than not. We expect three more... 22nd October 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily ‘Takaichinomics’ and Japan’s financial markets Japan’s new Prime Minister is a strong supporter of the ‘Abenomics’ reforms that had a big effect on the country’s financial markets a bit over a decade ago. But we think they – especially JGBs and... 22nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
APAC Commercial Property Update Brisbane poised to outperform due to lower remote work share Office attendance in Australia has recovered from pandemic lows but has stalled at around 70% of pre-pandemic levels since 2024. But the larger exposure of Melbourne and Sydney to the finance and... 22nd October 2025 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update China’s green exports still strong despite trade tensions China’s green technology exports accelerated in year-on-year terms in September and were close to record high levels. Despite the risks to exports from new rare earth controls and tariffs, the former... 20th October 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q3) & Activity (Sep. 2025) Headline GDP growth fell to its lowest in a year last quarter. But we think the figures still overstate the pace of economic expansion by at least 1.0%-pts. The September activity data were mixed –... 20th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3 2025) Although headline inflation rose to the top of the RBNZ's 1-3% target band last quarter, the Bank will put more emphasis on the fact that core inflation remained well-behaved. Accordingly, we still... 19th October 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Trade war flashpoints, PBOC holds renminbi steady The recent escalation in US-China trade tensions seems to have resulted in an impasse, with both sides looking to the other to initiate deescalation. For now, the Xi-Trump meeting at the APEC summit... 17th October 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Spillovers from rising US-China tensions, BI and BoK to cut US–China tensions have flared up again, with Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports reinforcing the ongoing shift of US demand and production away from China. India’s position has been... 17th October 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Russian oil import conundrum, RBI squeezes short-sellers President Trump's comments this week that Prime Minister Modi has pledged to stop buying oil from Russia have been denied by India's Ministry Of External Affairs. The latest data show that Russia's... 17th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Malaysia GDP (Q3, adv estimate) Malaysia’s economy accelerated in the third quarter but we expect growth to soften in the coming quarters which, alongside low inflation, should add to the case for further monetary easing this year. 17th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to cut in November as labour market cools RBA officials have recently been downplaying the potential for further rate cuts. However, we believe their hawkish pivot won't last. Indeed, the surge in the jobless rate to a four-year high in... 17th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Incoming PM unlikely to loosen fiscal policy much The stars are aligning for Sanae Takaichi to become Japan’s first female Prime Minister as soon as Tuesday. While the parties that she needs to rely on to secure a parliamentary majority have all been... 17th October 2025 · 6 mins read
