Capital Daily Are fiscal concerns mounting again in Japan? We don’t think worries about Japan’s fiscal position are too severe, and expect the country’s equities and exchange rate, at least, to recover by the end of the year. 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Malaysia GDP (Q2 2025, adv) GDP growth in Malaysia picked up during the second quarter but we expect this strength to fade and continue to expect the central bank to cut interest rates later this year. 18th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Will Indonesia breach its budget deficit limit? Indonesia’s government is cutting spending and considering new taxes as it tries to prevent the budget deficit breaching the 3% of GDP legal limit. An alternative for President Prabowo Subianto would... 18th July 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Urban redevelopment plans don’t tick stimulus box This week’s Central Urban Work Conference didn’t deliver the revival of the shantytown redevelopment scheme that helped stabilise China’s housing market a decade ago and that some had been hoping for... 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BoJ can’t shrug off strong inflation for much longer The resilience of exports and the strength in inflation leave the case for tighter monetary policy intact. Nonetheless, with trade negotiations between the US and Japan seemingly at a dead end, the... 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Labour market not an obstacle to RBA rate cuts The strong uptick in Australia's unemployment rate in June may be overstating the actual degree of slack in the labour market. After all, the underutilisation rate remains historically low and... 18th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (June 2025) Underlying inflation remains elevated and is almost certain to overshoot the Bank of Japan’s forecasts. However, with trade tensions looming large over the economy, the risk remains that the BoJ will... 18th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Is the US–Asia trade map being redrawn? 1753776000 President Trump’s flurry of new trade deals with Asian economies is starting to reshape the region’s trade architecture.
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (June 2025) The sharp rise in unemployment in June makes the RBA’s decision to leave rates on hold earlier this month look like a policy error. We’re increasingly convinced that the incoming data flow will prompt... 17th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (June 25) While overall exports are still holding up well, those to the US are plunging and we think soft global demand will result in a further decline over the coming quarters 17th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2025) & US-Indonesia Trade Deal Bank Indonesia (BI) resumed its easing cycle with a 25bp cut to its benchmark 7-day reverse repo rate, to 5.25%, today and, with inflation subdued and GDP growth likely to slow, we think there’s scope... 16th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Inflation will remain soft even as demand recovers We aren’t convinced that a pick-up in demand in response to looser monetary policy will unleash a wave of price hikes that firms were previously holding back. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our... 16th July 2025 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to cut further as property sector remains weak New Zealand’s housing market is still struggling to recover from its steep post-pandemic downturn. Although we still expect it to turn the corner in the coming months, the risk is that it will remain... 15th July 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q2) & Activity (Jun. 2025) Official GDP data came in a touch weaker in Q2. But the figures still overstate the strength of growth by around 1.5%-pts. And the June activity data suggest that the quarter ended on a weak note... 15th July 2025 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Jun. 2025) The larger-than-expected fall in India’s consumer price inflation to 2.1% y/y in June raises the prospect of the RBI cutting interest rates further at its policy meeting next month. But given the RBI... 14th July 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) The acceleration in broad credit growth last month, to a 16-month high, is a positive sign for the outlook and reduces the risk of a sharp declaration in near-term economic activity. But this tailwind... 14th July 2025 · 2 mins read
