Asia Economics Update Indonesia: GDP data tell us little about the economy We pay little attention to the official Indonesia GDP figures, which once again showed growth was unchanged at around 5% last quarter. 5th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Federal Election The Australian Labor party, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, is cruising towards victory in yesterday’s federal election. Given that our forecasts assumed policy continuity, we are inclined to... 4th May 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Burning through fiscal ammunition Fiscal loosening wasn't enough to prevent a slowdown in China's growth last quarter. And while deficit spending appears likely to ramp up further this quarter, the current budget leaves officials with... 2nd May 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: A close call in Malaysia Bank Negara Malaysia has so far held off on rate cuts, but with first quarter growth slowing sharply, inflation at a four-year low, and external risks mounting, we expect the central bank to begin its... 2nd May 2025 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Exporters could fill some of China's void India looks relatively well-positioned to be an alternative to China as a supplier of goods to the US in the immediate term. And India also stands out as likely to benefit over the long term – the... 2nd May 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Inflation risks remain two-sided, Labor leads in polls With underlying inflation having returned to its 2-3% target range in Q1, the RBA is all but certain to cut rates by 25bp at its meeting later this month. However, given that timely data point to... 2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia April Manufacturing PMIs The April PMIs for Asia fell sharply, providing the first sign that Trump tariffs are weighing on sentiment in the region. With concerns about growth mounting and inflation worries continuing to ease... 2nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Bank of Japan too downbeat about inflation outlook The Bank of Japan slashed its GDP growth forecasts this week, arguing that global trade tensions are weighing on sentiment of households and firms. While consumer confidence has indeed plunged... 2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Mar./Q1 2025) 2nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The BoJ, JGB yields and the risk of capital repatriation Despite the Bank of Japan’s dovish tone today we think it won’t be long before JGB yields start to rise again. And even though concerns about Japanese capital repatriation have seemingly been back on... 1st May 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates again before long The Bank of Japan revised down its growth forecasts and sounded more dovish when it left policy settings unchanged today. However, we believe that the Bank has become far too downbeat about the... 1st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: shrugging off the trade war (for now) Data published for Korea from the past few days suggests the economy remains weak, but that the trade war so far appears to be having a minimal impact. While exports to the US fell, the declines were... 1st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weak housing market starting to weigh on inflation Stretched housing affordability continues to keep a lid on house price growth. And if we’re right that the RBA will only lower rates by another 50bp, it will remain a headwind. But with the housing... 1st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Apr. 2025) Higher US import tariffs and softening expectations for global growth have caused large capital outflows from EMs. But our currency crisis risk indicators suggest that EMs are well placed to weather... 30th April 2025 · 1 min read
