China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Jul. 2025) Exports came under pressure again last month – the acceleration in headline y/y growth was simply due to base effects. With the temporary boost to demand from the US-China trade truce already fading... 7th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update NZD and AUD likely to struggle over the rest of the year The high-beta Antipodean currencies had been the worst victims of global trade tensions but have fared better since early April, relative to their G10 peers, as global risk appetite steadily improved... 7th August 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Trump takes a jab at India and the oil market If the extra 25% tariff that President Trump has announced on imports from India remains in place, India’s attractiveness as an emerging manufacturing hub will be hugely undermined. Global oil prices... 6th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: external risks no longer loom so large Indonesia’s current account position has improved markedly since the onset of the pandemic and we expect the deficit to stay small over the next couple of years. The rupiah will probably depreciate... 6th August 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s easing cycle at an end The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rate on hold at 5.50% and maintained its “neutral” policy stance today, despite India already being hit by a 25% US tariff with the potential for it to... 6th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Jun. 2025) Although regular earnings growth has been struggling to gain momentum, we think it will do so before long. Accordingly, the data shouldn’t stand in the way of the Bank of Japan resume its tightening... 6th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q2 2025) With New Zealand’s labour market continuing to slacken in Q2, the RBNZ is all but certain push ahead with a 25bp cut at its meeting later this month. 6th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Oil market remains unfazed by geopolitics for now Despite President Trump’s threat to enforce 100% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy, which could effectively choke off up to 5% of global... 5th August 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea: consumer spending on the mend Consumer spending in Korea rebounded last quarter and should remain strong over the coming year as government stimulus, rate cuts, and rising wages support demand. But the ongoing downturn in the... 5th August 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Can India wean itself off Russian oil? India could in principle find suppliers other than Russia to meet its energy needs relatively easily with little economic impact. Indeed, Indian oil refiners are reportedly reducing their purchases... 5th August 2025 · 4 mins read
RBA Watch RBA Watch: Despite its cautious tone, RBA will cut rates to 2.85% With underlying inflation within striking distance of the midpoint of the RBA’s 2-3% target, the Board should have no qualms about cutting rates by 25bp at its meeting next Tuesday. Although the Bank... 5th August 2025 · 8 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia GDP (Q2 2025) Officials figures released today showed that Indonesia’s GDP growth stood at 5.1% y/y in Q2, but we don’t have much faith in the data – growth has been close to 5% for the past few years. Our... 5th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Jun. 25) The strong pickup in household spending last quarter won’t keep the RBA from handing down a 25bp cut when it meets next Tuesday. Looking ahead, however, the data do suggest upside risks to our below... 5th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Trump's tariffs and what they mean for Asia Most countries in Asia will face tariffs of 15–25% on their exports to the US. While the tariffs are higher than we initially assumed, the impact on most countries will be manageable since they won’t... 1st August 2025 · 7 mins read
